Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs are set to take on the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. This NL matchup begins at 7:35 p.m. ET and you can watch it on NSC+ and FSSE.

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (+110) is coming into this one as the underdog to Chicago (-120) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs. The odds for wagering on the games total stand at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds standing at +125 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and -145 for the Braves +1.5.

The Cubs are 21-17 SU and have gone 17-20 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early portions of the season and 3.3 units ATS. The Braves, on the other hand, are 25-15 SU and 24-15 ATS. They’ve gained 12.2 units for moneyline bettors and 9.7 units ATS.

Braves games have an over/under record of 19-17-3 so far in 2018. The Cubs have an over/under record of 17-20.

Right-hander Yu Darvish is the probable starter for the visiting Cubs. Darvish is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 37 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 7.71 ERA against Atlanta this year.

The Braves are putting the ball in the right hand of Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), who has 47 strikeouts and 19 walks this season. Foltynewicz has yet to face the Cubs this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 2.84 ERA and two strikeouts across 6.1 innings).

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.0 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.55, a WHIP of 1.33 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.7. The bullpen has a 3.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.

Atlanta’s offense has produced 5.5 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 6.4 per game over its last five. The teams hit .275/.365/.495 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Braves hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Nick Markakis. Freeman is slashing .325/.432/.576 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored, and Markakis has put up a line of .346/.415/.537 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs.

Freeman particularly relished batting against right-handed pitchers at home in 2017. Across 160 such plate appearances, he slashed .362/.475/.638 (compared to his overall season line of .307/.403/.586).

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.03 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.31 K/9. The bullpen has an outstanding ERA of just 2.69, along with a WHIP of 1.39.

The Cubs offense has slashed .255/.336/.431 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game this season, including 6.9 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 8.0 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been led by third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez, who have combined to blast 18 home runs. Bryant is slashing .281/.415/.586 with eight home runs, 21 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Baez is hitting .274/.310/.596 with 10 homers, 36 RBIs, 27 runs and five stolen bases.

The Cubs have lost 3.4 units and are 12-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 12 of those games, as opposed to 14 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 8.3 units and are 18-11 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 12 which went under the total.

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in three of Chicago’s last seven games.
  • The Braves have won six of their last seven games SU.
  • Chicago has posted 28.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 28.8 over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.