Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will square off against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. The matchup gets going at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans can watch it on either WLS or FSOH.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (+145) is coming into this one as the underdog to Chicago (-155) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the games total stand at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. The games runline odds sit at -110 for betting the Cubs -1.5 runs and -110 for the Reds +1.5 runs.

The Cubs have gone 24-19 SU this year and are 18-23 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.3 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going and 5.3 units ATS. Chicago is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 16-31 SU and 24-21 ATS. The team has lost 11.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.1 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.

Reds games have a 20-24-1 over/under record thus far in 2018. Chicago has an over/under record of 18-23.

Yu Darvish will get the nod for Chicago. The right-handed Darvish is 0-3 with a 5.56 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Reds will turn to righty Tyler Mahle (3-5, 4.34 ERA), who has 46 strikeouts and 16 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.34. Mahle is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Chicago this year.

As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has given up 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 5.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 21 games against NL Central foes, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.37 and the bullpens ERA is 4.76.

The Cincinnati offense has produced 4.0 runs per outing, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .182/.261/.296 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Reds hitters have been led by first baseman Joey Votto and second baseman Scooter Gennett. Votto is hitting .278/.404/.426 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Gennett is hitting .324 with seven homers, 27 RBIs and 21 runs.

Votto performed well against righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .347/.490/.648 over 253 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .320/.453/.577).

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.42 K/9. The bullpen has managed an excellent ERA of just 2.67, along with a K/9 of 8.96.

The Cubs offense has slashed .258/.342/.429 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Third baseman Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras have led Chicago’s hitters. Bryant is hitting .305/.427/.583 with eight home runs, 24 RBIs and 29 runs scored, while Contreras (.279/.361/.490) is up to four homers, 20 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

The Cubs have lost 3.9 units and are 13-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, as opposed to 17 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 9.1 units and are 17-15 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs hit in 14 of those games, compared to 18 that went under the total.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Each team has hit 12 home runs over its last 10 games.
  • Chicago has posted 27.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 26.0 over its last five.