Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: Free Week 18 Betting Pick

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It’ll be an AFC-AFC showdown as the Houston Texans (-3) are favorites against the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. ESPN will televise the action and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 4:35 p.m. ET.

Week 18 Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The Bills approach this Saturday AFC matchup as the underdog and are currently getting 3 points. The Bills are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Texans are -150. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 42 points. Based on the way things are shaping up, there should be some decent live betting scenarios for this match.

The game’s total has swung up after initially being set at 41. The opening spread of -3 has yet to change.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Bills have gained 4.7 units while the Texans are up 1.8 units.

The Bills are 10-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Texans are also 10-6 SU.

The Bills will try to get back in stride after a 13-6 loss to the Jets in Week 17 where the Bills completed 21-of-40 passes for 237 yards and two interceptions. Matt Barkley went 18-for-35 for 232 yards and two interceptions while Josh Allen completed three-of-five for five yards. T.J. Yeldon (only 18 yards on seven rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while Duke Williams (six receptions, 108 yards) and Tommy Sweeney (five catches, 76 yards) manned the receiving duties.

Back in Week 17, Tennessee took care of this Houston crew by a score of 35-14. The Texans defensive unit let the Titans eat up the clock by running for 245 yards on 39 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Derrick Henry was outstandingfor the Titans, recording 211 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts. For Houston, AJ McCarron completed 21-of-36 passes for 225 yards and one interception. Taiwan Jones (40 yards on nine rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat as DeAndre Carter (six receptions, 65 yards) and Jordan Akins (five catches, 54 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Buffalo has run the ball on 47.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has an overall rush percentage of 44.8 percent. The Bills have rushed for 128.4 yards/game and have 13 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Texans are logging 125.6 rushing yards per game and have 17 total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then the Bills should hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, since their offensive line has given up only 41 sacks while the D-line registered 36 sacks. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 62 sacks and their defense has forced only 43 sacks.

The Bills offense has tallied 217.3 yards/contest through the air overall and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Texans have produced 255.2 pass yards per contest and have 27 total pass scores.

Buffalo should hold an edge in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 103.1 yards and pass for 213.8 yards per game. The Houston defense has given up 280.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.1 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.68 to opponents, while the Texans have given up a 7.12 ANY/A.

McCarron has completed 21-of-37 passes for 225 yards, zero TDs and one INT for Houston. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at a horrendous 3.26 for the season and 3.67 across his last two outings. In the other huddle, Barkley is up to 359 passing yards this year. He’s completed 27-of-51 attempts with zero passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Barkley has a 4.04 ANY/A, including 3.92 over the last two outings.

These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 20-13 victory for Houston.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game was 37.5. The under cashed in the team’s 13-6 loss to the Jets.
  • Buffalo has rushed for 3.6 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
  • Houston has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 3.5 over its last two.
  • The Houston offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Buffalo has lost seven.
  • Over its last three contests, Buffalo is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Buffalo has lost four of its last five games SU, with a seven-point victory over Pittsburgh on December 15th accounting for the only win over that span.
  • The Over/Under for Houston’s last outing going into it was 43. The over cashed in the 35-14 defeat to Tennessee.
  • In its last three contests, Houston is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Bills offense has recorded eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Texans have put up 10 such plays.
  • The Buffalo defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Houston has given up 12 such plays.
  • The Buffalo offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Houston has created 12 such runs.
  • The Bills defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Texans have given up 13 such runs.
  • The Buffalo defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 44 times this season. Houston has registered just 31 sacks.