Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings – Free Week 3 Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings are set to collide indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium. This early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on CBS.

Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

Minnesota is heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 17 points to Buffalo. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points. If one side can get out in front in the early stages, it would likely produce a solid betting opportunity in-game.

With the game’s over/under originally set at 41.5, the under is getting the bulk of the early sharp action.

The Bills are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-0.

The Vikings are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-1.

The Bills have gone 0-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Vikings are 1-0-1 SU.

The Bills are most-recently on the rebound after a 31-20 loss to the Chargers last week. The passing game could’ve been sharper as Josh Allen completed just 18-of-33 passes for 245 yards, one score and two interceptions. LeSean McCoy (39 yards on nine rush attempts) led the ground attack. McCoy (four receptions, 29 yards) and Zay Jones (two catches, 63 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Minnesota just earned a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2. The team’s defensive secondary let the Packers air it out for 281 yards. Jimmy Graham put up a good showing for Green Bay, recording 95 yards on six catches. For Minnesota, Kirk Cousins completed 35-of-48 passes for 425 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Dalvin Cook (38 rushing yards on 10 attempts) handled the running game as Adam Thielen (12 receptions, 131 yards, one TD) and Stefon Diggs (nine catches, 128 yards, two TDs) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Buffalo has run the ball on 40.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 37.3 percent. The Bills have produced 83.5 rush yards per game and have only one score on the ground this year. The Vikes are averaging 92.0 rush yards per game and have yet to record a rushing TD.

If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Vikes should have the edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded just five sacks while the D-line has logged seven sacks. The Bills offensive line has given up 11 sacks and their defense has created only four sacks.

The Bills offensive scheme has averaged 171.5 yards in the air overall and has only one passing TD so far. The Vikes have produced 334.5 pass yards per contest and have six total pass score.

Defensively, Buffalo has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 113.0 yards and pass for 258.0 yards per game. The Minnesota D has allowed 271.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 94.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Vikes are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.82 to opponents, while the Bills have allowed a whopping 8.87 ANY/A.

Cousins has been more effective than Allen of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.94 for the season and 8.02 across his last two games while Allen’s ANY/A is 3.66 and 3.52 over his last two.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings NFL Pick

SU Winner: , ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Minnesota offense has lost one fumble this season while Buffalo has yet to let any get away.
  • The Vikings have made one pass play of 30+ yards while the Bills have produced zero such plays.
  • The Buffalo defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40+ yards, while Minnesota has given up one such play.
  • Both defenses have produced zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Buffalo offense has recorded three running plays of 10+ yards while Minnesota has accounted for one such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Bills have given up three running plays of 10+ yards while the Vikings have given up five such plays.
  • The Minnesota defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times this season. Buffalo has registered four sacks.