Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers: Week 4 Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Buffalo Bills (+10) will meet the Green Bay Packers (-10) at Lambeau Field. CBS will televise the action and this early afternoon matchup is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills

In this Sunday matchup, Green Bay has been projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 10 points. The Bills are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Packers are -475. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 44 points. If the favorites give up points early on, it would probably result in a worthy betting opportunity in-game.

The sharp action has been siding with the Bills, as the line opened at -11. The game’s O/U hasn’t changed after it was initially established at 44.

The Bills are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units so far. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 2-1.

The Packers have lost 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-0.

The Bills have gone 1-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Packers are 1-1-1 SU.

The Bills want to make it two in a row 27-6 victory over Minnesota last week. The Bills secondary allowed the Vikings to air it out for 296 yards. On the offensive side, Josh Allen completed 15-of-22 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown. Chris Ivory (56 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and the signal-caller Allen (39 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack. Ivory (three receptions, 70 yards) and Kelvin Benjamin (three catches, 29 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Green Bay just suffered a 31-17 defeat to Washington in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers completed 27-of-44 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Jones (42 rushing yards on six attempts) spearheaded the running game while Davante Adams (seven receptions, 52 yards, one TD) and Ty Montgomery (six catches, 48 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Buffalo has run the ball on 48.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Green Bay has a rush percentage of 32.2 percent. The Bills have run for 98.3 yards per game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Packers are logging 89.0 rushing yards per game and have yet to record a rush TD.

The Bills offense has logged 179.7 yards per contest through the air overall and has two passing TDs so far. The Packers have put up 295.7 pass yards per game and have six total pass score.

On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has allowed 80.0 rush yards and 270.7 pass yards per game. The Green Bay D has allowed 272.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.3 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.76 to opposing QBs, while the Packers have given up a 7.50 ANY/A.

Offensively, Allen has amassed 270 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 21-of-37 attempts with one scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a 5.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.13 over the last two games.

In the home locker room, Aaron Rodgers has completed 47-of-74 passes for 551 yards, five TDs and zero INTs. Rodgers’ ANY/A stands at 7.59 for the year and 5.88 over his last two games.

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers Betting Pick

SU Winner: Packers, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Bills offense has created two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Packers have put up three such plays.
  • The Buffalo defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Green Bay has given up three such plays.
  • The Buffalo offense has created one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while Green Bay has created zero such run.
  • The Bills defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Packers have given up one such run.
  • The Buffalo defense has eight sacks on the year while Green Bay has six.
  • As a team, Buffalo has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last two games.
  • Green Bay has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last two.