Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat Betting Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

An eight-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Miami Heat (41-35), who will be 7.5-point favorites when they clash with the Brooklyn Nets (24-51) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 211.5 points and it will air on YES Network at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 31, 2018.

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat ATS Odds

Both teams beat their last opponent. The Heat defeated the Chicago Bulls 103-92, while the Nets beat the Orlando Magic 111-104.

Brooklyn played a flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.218 (above their season average of 0.205) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 21.7). For those same stats, Orlando had marks of 0.141 and 22.9, respectively. Meanwhile, Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Chicago. The Heat had a rate of 0.494 (below their season average of 0.523), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.400 (below their season average of 0.497). Miami received a boost from Josh Richardson, who had 22 points and five rebounds. Meanwhile, D’Angelo Russell played well for Brooklyn, finishing with 16 points, 12 assists and five rebounds.

From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a significant edge. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while the Brooklyn offense is ranked 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.511). This contest should be a showdown of conflicting styles. The fast-paced Nets rank fifth in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Heat rank 24th.

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Nets games, with 40 unders compared to 35 overs. Although Brooklyn has a hard time winning games straight up (24-51 SU), they have a respectable record against the spread (42-32-1).

Heat games also have finished under the O/U total 51.3 percent of the time. Moreover, Miami is 41-35 SU and 39-33-4 ATS.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been playing at a high level recently for Brooklyn, averaging 17.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals over the last five games.

In three matchups against each other this year, the Nets have won two. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 196 points, which was under the projected point total of 207.5. Brooklyn won 101-95, covering as a 3-point underdog. Brooklyn did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (20-26; 76.9 percent). Miami, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (10.4 vs. 13.8). DeMarre Carroll was the games leading scorer with 26 points.

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat Free Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 44.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Nets rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (46.7).
  • Miami averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Brooklyn ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
  • The Heat rank 19th in steals per game (7.6) while the Nets rank last (6.1).
  • Miami ranks 19th in points off turnovers per game (16.2) while Brooklyn ranks 29th (14.2).
  • Brooklyn ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (35.0) while Miami ranks ninth (30.8).
  • The Heat rank 11th in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while the Nets rank 28th (13.6).
  • The Nets rank 18th in fast break points per game (10.6) while the Heat rank 28th (8.9).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Brooklyn ranks seventh (21.8).
  • Miami ranks 13th in rebounds allowed per game (42.8) while Brooklyn ranks last (46.5).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Miami is 25-6 and Brooklyn is 12-1.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Heat are 29-17 and the Nets are 20-35.
  • Brooklyn is 25-13 ATS on the road, while Miami is 16-19-2 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 19 of the Nets 38 road games, while 19 of the Heat’s 37 home games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • The Heat are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nets are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push, while Brooklyn has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.8, up from 0.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Nets have scored an average of 112.0 points per game (5.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.4 points per game (2.9 above their season average).