Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: College Football Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Rockets (-20) are set to welcome their conference counterpart Bowling Green Falcons to Toledo. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN+ will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets

Bowling Green is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 20 points in this MAC game. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put up $1,800 to win $100 back on the Rockets (-1800). The Falcons are getting +900 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 74 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely produce a decent in-game betting opportunity.

The Falcons are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.0 unit so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-1.

The Rockets have lost 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-2 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-0.

The Falcons are 1-4 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against MAC opponents. The Rockets are 2-2 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Falcons came up short to Georgia Tech 63-17 in a blowout where the passing game the big culprit as Jarret Doege completed 27-of-44 passes for 305 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Bryson Denley (23 yards on 11 rush attempts) led the running attack. Scott Miller (10 receptions, 117 yards) and Jordan Wayne-Prather (seven catches, 70 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Fresno State knocked off this Toledo team by a score of 49-27. As a group, the Rockets collectively completed 16-of-31 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Eli Peters went 10-for-21 for 179 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Mitchell Guadagni was six-of-10 for 59 yards and one touchdown. Mitchell Guadagni (55 rushing yards on eight attempts) spearheaded the running game while Jon’Vea Johnson (six receptions, 112 yards, two TDs) and Diontae Johnson (three catches, 21 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Bowling Green has run the ball on 48.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Toledo has an overall rush percentage of 60.1 percent. The Falcons have run for 85.8 yards/game and have three touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rockets are averaging 173.0 rush yards per game and have eight total rushing TDs.

The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 256.8 yards in the air overall and has 13 passing scores so far. The Rockets have put up 270.0 pass yards per game and also have 13 total pass TDs.

Bowling Green seems to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 341.2 yards and pass for 160.2 yards per game. The Toledo defense has allowed 266.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 192.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rockets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.21 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a whopping 9.90 ANY/A.

Guadagni probably has the edge over Doege in this one. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 11.38 for the season and 9.24 across his last two outings while Doege’s ANY/A is 4.94 (and 4.76 over the last two outings).

These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 66-37 victory for Toledo.

Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets Free Prediction

SU Winner: Toledo, ATS Winner: Bowling Green, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • Bowling Green was favored by 28 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 65. The over cashed and Bowling Green did not cover in the 63-17 loss to Georgia Tech.
  • As a team, Bowling Green has produced 2.48214285714286 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.1 over its last two.
  • Toledo has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • The Toledo offense has lost one fumble this season while Bowling Green has let three get away.
  • Toledo was favored by 11 points in its previous match and the Over/Under was set at 61.5. The over cashed and Toledo failed to cover in that 49-27 loss to Fresno State.
  • In its last three matches, Toledo is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Both teams have produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Falcons have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Rockets have created nine such plays.
  • The Bowling Green defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Toledo has given up four such plays.
  • The Bowling Green offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Toledo has created five such runs.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rockets have given up eight such runs.
  • The Toledo defense has sacked opposing QBs six times this season. Bowling Green has produced five sacks.