Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Free Pick

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Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox are ready to do battle against their divisional rival Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards in a Saturday showdown. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be televising the action.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Odds

Las Vegas has Baltimore (+185) as the underdog to Boston (-200). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to finish under 11.5 runs, then bookmakers are teeing up -110 odds. Picking the over will give you -110 odds. There’s a runline of Red Sox -1.5 (-140) and Orioles +1.5 (+120) for this matchup.

The Orioles are only 30-66 straight up (SU) and 39-56 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 17.8 units for moneyline bettors and 22.9 units ATS. Baltimore has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 53-45 SU and have gone 42-55 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 15.4 units for moneyline gamblers and 18.2 units ATS. Boston is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Baltimore games have a 47-43-5 over/under record so far in 2019. The Red Sox have been a strong over bet with a total record of 55-39-3.

Rick Porcello will get the nod for Boston. The right-handed Porcello (7-7, 5.37 ERA) has recorded 83 punchouts in 105.2 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA against Baltimore this year.

The Orioles will turn to Tom Eshelman (0-1, 5.06 ERA), who’s got seven strikeouts and two walks as well as a 1.22 WHIP. Eshelman hasn’t faced the Red Sox yet this year and did not appear in the majors in 2018.

Boston’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.56 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.58, along with a K/9 of 10.65.

Red Sox hitters have slashed .272/.348/.462 on their way to 5.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts have led Boston’s hitters. Devers is slashing .322/.375/.557 with 19 home runs, 73 RBIs and 74 runs scored, while Bogaerts (.311/.396/.568) has produced 21 homers, 74 RBIs and 74 runs scored.

For the home team, Baltimore’s pitching staff has yielded 6.1 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.37, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.0. The bullpen has a 6.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. In 44 divisional games, Orioles starters have an ERA of 4.95 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.54.

The Baltimore hitters have put up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .268/.320/.417 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Outfielder Trey Mancini and second baseman Jonathan Villar have led the charge for the Orioles’ batters this year. Mancini is slashing .284/.347/.517 with 19 home runs, 43 RBIs and 60 runs scored, and Villar’s line is .257/.320/.407 with 10 homers, 41 RBIs, 56 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Orioles have lost 12.8 units and are 26-34 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 29 of those games, compared to 28 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers.

Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in four of Boston’s last seven outings.
  • Boston fielders have 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to only four errors for Baltimore over its last 10.
  • The Red Sox have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Orioles have hit 12 over their last 10.