Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Toronto Blue Jays are playing host to their division rival Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. New England Sports Network is in line to broadcast the action and the game will get going at 1:07 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Boston (-125) is favored over Toronto (+115) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9.5 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the most recent runline odds standing at +120 for the Red Sox -1.5 runs and -140 for the Blue Jays +1.5 runs.

The Red Sox have gone 27-12 SU this year and are 18-20 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 8.3 units for gamblers taking the moneyline through the early portions of the year, despite having lost 3.1 units ATS. Boston’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are 21-19 SU and 21-18 ATS. The team has gained 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.0 units ATS. Toronto has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Blue Jays games have had an over/under record of 17-17-5 so far in 2018. The Red Sox have an over/under record of 19-18-1.

Left-hander Drew Pomeranz will get the nod for the visiting BoSox. Pomeranz is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA and 20 strikeouts. He has yet to face Toronto this year, but he did make four starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 3-1 record with a 3.92 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Blue Jays are going with righty Joe Biagini (0-1, 8.10 ERA), who has eight strikeouts and four walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 2.00. Biagini made two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 0-2 record in 2017, compiling a 0-2 record with a 7.53 ERA.

Toronto’s pitching staff has yielded 4.7 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The clubs starters have a 5.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.80, a WHIP of 1.29 and a K/9 of 9.4. In 19 games against divisional opponents, Blue Jays starters have an ERA of 4.74 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.15.

The Toronto offense has produced 4.9 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .211/.268/.380 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Kevin Pillar and Curtis Granderson have led the Blue Jays offense this year. Pillar is hitting .316/.358/.533 with four home runs, 17 RBIs, 25 runs and eight steals, and Granderson is batting .273 with three homers, 13 RBIs and 16 runs scored.

Pillar performed well against lefties at home in 2017. In 77 such plate appearances, he slashed .333/.364/.583 (compared to his overall season line of .255/.300/.403).

For the visitors, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.81 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.76, along with a K-per-9 of 10.25.

Red Sox hitters have slashed .267/.331/.456 on their way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Boston’s hitters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, who collectively have blasted 22 home runs. Betts is slashing .356/.435/.780 with 13 home runs, 27 RBIs, 41 runs and five stolen bases, while Martinez is slashing .336/.385/.603 with nine homers, 30 RBIs and 23 runs scored.

Martinez did not perform especially well against righties on the road in 2017. Over 177 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .255/.299/.588 (his overall season line was .303/.376/.690).

The Red Sox have gained 8.7 units and are 15-14 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 12 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have netted 0.8 units and are 10-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in six of those games, as opposed to seven which went under the total.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Red Sox have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games. The Blue Jays have hit 14 over their last 10.
  • Toronto has recorded 19.5 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.0 over its last five.