Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Free Pick

The Boston Red Sox will take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. This AL showdown is going to be televised nationally on ESPN and the game gets underway 7:38 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Houston (-170) as the favorite over Boston (+160). Gamblers are able to bet on the games total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8 runs and -115 for under 8. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds sitting at -135 for the Red Sox +1.5 runs and +115 for the Astros -1.5.

The Red Sox are 40-19 SU and are 31-27 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 3.5 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Astros, on the other hand, are 37-23 SU and 33-26 ATS. They’ve gained 1.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.0 units ATS. Houston has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Houston games have had an over/under record of 22-33-4 so far in 2018. Boston has an over/under record of 29-27-2.

The right-handed Rick Porcello is the projected starter for the visiting Red Sox. Porcello is 7-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 70 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Astros this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 10.50 ERA and three strikeouts across six innings).

The Astros will put the ball in the right hand of Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.26 ERA), who has 85 strikeouts and 22 walks this season as well as a 1.02 WHIP. Morton only made one start against the Red Sox in 2017 (1-0, 3.38 ERA and four strikeouts across 5.1 innings).

Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.23, along with a WHIP of 1.22.

The Red Sox offense has slashed .264/.331/.463 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.0 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.8 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Boston’s hitters have been powered by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts, who collectively have blasted 36 home runs. Martinez is hitting .321/.381/.660 with 19 home runs, 50 RBIs and 37 runs scored, while Betts is hitting .359 with 17 homers, 37 RBIs, 52 runs and 13 steals.

For the home team, Houston’s pitching staff has given up 2.8 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 2.58, a WHIP of 0.98 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.3. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 3.04, a WHIP of 1.11 and a K/9 of 10.2.

The Houston hitters are putting up 5.0 runs per outing, including 6.2 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The teams hit .247/.316/.406 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Astros batters have been led by second baseman Jose Altuve and right fielder George Springer. Altuve is slashing .332/.379/.459 with four home runs, 29 RBIs, 34 runs and eight stolen bases, while Springer’s line sits at .288/.351/.496 with 12 homers, 35 RBIs and 45 runs.

The Red Sox have gained 13.2 units and are 27-19 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Astros have netted 3.1 units and are 22-17 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 22 that went under the total.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Houston has recorded 25.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.4 over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Astros have hit 17 over their last 10.