Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox will take on the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. This AL showdown will be televised nationally on ESPN and the opening pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians Odds

Vegas has placed equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. The total sits at 9.5 runs and gamblers can take the over or the under for -110. You can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Red Sox -1.5 runs (+140) and Indians +1.5 runs (-160).

The Indians are 86-68 straight up (SU) and 72-81 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 24.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 19.6 units (ATS). Cleveland has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has hit in three of those seven. The Red Sox are 105-50 SU and have gone 90-64 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 37.0 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 24.0 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.

Indians games have an over/under record of 73-71-9 in 2018. The Red Sox have an over/under record of 71-75-8.

Hector Velazquez will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. The right-handed Velazquez (7-2, 3.18 ERA) has recorded 49 strikeouts in 79.1 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA against Cleveland this year.

The Indians will put the ball in the right hand of Adam Plutko (4-5, 5.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), who’s got 57 punchouts and 19 walks. Plutko is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 10.38 ERA in one start against Boston this year.

Boston’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.52 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.58, along with a K-per-9 of 9.54.

The Red Sox offense has slashed .267/.339/.450 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Boston’s hitters have been paced by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts, who collectively have launched 71 home runs. Martinez is slashing .329/.401/.624 with 41 home runs, 124 RBIs and 106 runs scored. Betts (.339/.432/.625) is up to 30 homers, 77 RBIs, 121 runs and 28 stolen bases.

In the other dugout, Cleveland’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.15 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 4.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.

Cleveland’s offense is putting up 5.0 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .250/.368/.407 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor and outfielder Michael Brantley have led the Indians’ hitters this year. Lindor is hitting .283/.356/.527 with 36 home runs, 89 RBIs, 124 runs and 23 stolen bases, while Brantley’s line sits at .310/.364/.474 with 17 homers, 75 RBIs and 85 runs.

The Red Sox have gained 36.0 units and are 71-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 55 of those games, compared to 57 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Indians have lost 14.5 units and are 54-58 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 54 of those games, as opposed to 53 that’ve cashed the under.

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Indians, ATS Winner – Indians, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in only two of Cleveland’s last seven games.
  • Boston has recorded 20.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 24.2 over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.