Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

Expect a low-scoring game when the Boston Celtics (6-3), 2.5-point underdogs, clash with the Denver Nuggets (8-1) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 205 points and it gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, November 5, 2018.

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds

The Nuggets beat the Utah Jazz in their last outing, 103-88, comfortably covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Celtics, on the other hand, were topped by the Indiana Pacers, 102-101, and failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The Denver game went 19 points under the projected point total of 210, while the Boston game finished 3 points under the projected point total of 206.

The Nuggets held the Jazz to an effective field goal percentage of 0.444 (below their season average of 0.543) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (21.1 vs. 20.0). Boston, on the other hand, made 19 of their 46 three pointers (41.3 percent). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver with seven points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds. Marcus Morris had a solid performance for Boston, contributing 23 points and six rebounds.

The Celtics dominated this series last year, taking both contests. In the most recent matchup, Boston won 111-110. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Denver. The Celtics had a rate of 0.566 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.505.

Games featuring the Celtics have a tendency to go under the projected point total (66.7 percent). Boston has a solid 6-3 straight up (SU) record, but they have trouble covering the spread (4-5 against the spread (ATS)).

Games involving the Nuggets also have typically finished under the projected point total (77.8 percent). Further, Denver owns records of 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS.

Baskets could be hard to come by as a pair of the NBA’s top defenses go head-to-head. Denver ranks third in defensive efficiency (108.5) and Boston is first (102.2) dating back to last season. Also, the Celtics, who rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), might struggle to get second chance points against the Nuggets, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (77.7 percent).

Celtics at Nuggets ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Celtics rank second in assists allowed per game (21.2) while the Nuggets rank 15th (24.6).
  • Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.3) while Boston ranks last (12.1).
  • The Nuggets rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Celtics rank 25th (44.1).
  • Boston ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (31.0) while Denver ranks 24th (30.6).
  • Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while Denver ranks 18th (4.8).
  • The Nuggets rank second in points in the paint per game (49.9) while the Celtics rank 29th (39.7).
  • The Nuggets rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Celtics rank last (15.0).
  • Denver ranks second in steals per game (7.8) while Boston ranks 26th (7.2).
  • Boston is 45-8 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 20-2.
  • The Celtics are 57-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 47-27.