Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Hockey, NHL

The Boston Bruins look to fend off elimination at Amalie Arena in Game 5 of the NHL’s Eastern Conference Semis. The action gets underway at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 6, and it will be broadcasted live on NBC.

Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

Tampa Bay (+155) is entering this one as the underdog to Tampa Bay (-175), and the Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 6 goals. The odds for betting that total sit at -120 under, +100 over.

The Lightning are 61-30 straight up (SU) and have earned moneyline bettors 12.8 units this year. That winning percentage, ranked first in the NHL in this young season, is an improvement over the 42-40 record from last years regular season campaign. Through 91 regular season outings, 54 of its games have gone over the total, while 34 have gone under and just three have pushed. This season, the teams 33-13 SU at home.

Tampa Bay’s offense attempted 32.7 shots per game in the regular season, resulting in 3.6 goals per outing (ranked first overall in the NHL). In the postseason, the teams maintaining an average of 33.3 shots on goal 3.6 goals per game.

After producing the third-strongest power-play unit in the regular season (converting 24.2 percent of all opportunities), the Lightning have connected on 25.7 percent of their extra-man advantages in the postseason. Their penalty kill has gone from 75.9 percent in the regular season to 75.0 percent in the playoffs.

Averaging 29.2 saves per game with a .920 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (51-23-3) has been the top goalkeeper for the Lightning this year. If they choose to rest him, however, the team might turn to Louis Domingue (7-12-12 record, .894 save percentage, 3.41 goals against average).

The Bolts will continue to look for leadership from Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. Kucherov (111 points) has tallied 45 goals and 66 assists and has recorded two or more points in 34 different games this year. Stamkos has 30 goals and 65 assists to his name and has recorded a point in 58 contests.

Over on the other bench, Boston is 55-38 straight up (SU) and has earned moneyline bettors 1.0 unit this year. A total of 45 of its outings have gone under the total, while 42 have gone over and just six have pushed. Boston’s 24-22 SU as a road team this season.

Boston has converted on 24.9 percent of its power play chances this season, a figure that’s good enough for fourth-best in the league. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked third overall and it’s successfully killed off 82.7 percent of all opponent power plays.

Boston’s players have been whistled for penalties 3.8 times per game this season, and 4.8 per game over their past five outings. The team has had to kill penalties just 6.8 minutes per contest over their last five road games.

Tuukka Rask (2.46 goals against average and .915 save percentage) has been the primary option in goal for Boston. Rask is averaging 25.8 saves per game and owns a 39-26-6 record.

For the visiting Bruins, the offense will run through Brad Marchand (38 goals, 64 assists) and David Pastrnak (41 goals, 59 assists).

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Predictions

Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Over

Betting Notes

  • The total has gone over in three of Boston’s last five games.
  • Boston has managed 28.0 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Tampa Bay is averaging 32.4 shots per game over its last five home outings.
  • Penalties and power plays may play a key role in the outcome of this matchup. The Bruins are 16-20 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 32-25 when they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes. The Lightning are 29-16 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 33-19 when they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
  • Tampa Bay is ranked 19th in the NHL with 7.1 takeaways per game. That figures trended upward, as it has created 8.3 takeaways over its last 10 games and 8.4 takeaways over its last five.
  • Boston has created 4.0 takeaways per game over its last five road games, a drop-off from its season average of 8.1 takeaways per game (ranked seventh in the NHL).