Boise State Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons – 10/27/2018 Free Pick

betdsiCollege Football, Football

The Falcons of Air Force (+10) are set to welcome their conference counterpart Boise State Broncos (-10) to Falcon Stadium. The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action live on CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos

Air Force is entering this MWC matchup as a significant underdog and is currently getting 10 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to lay down $400 in order to net $100 back on the Broncos (-400). The Falcons are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one team can catch a lucky break in the early stages it’ll generate a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58. With the spread currently standing at Air Force +10, oddsmakers are speculating that this could be a 24-34 victory for the Broncos.

The Broncos are down 3.6 units so far in 2018 and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-2-1.

The Falcons have lost 1.8 units this season. The team is 4-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Broncos have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Falcons are 3-4 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.

The Broncos are coming off a resounding 56-28 victory over Colorado State last week. Brett Rypien completed 22-of-26 passes for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Alexander Mattison (85 yards on 20 rushes, one TD) led the running attack while A.J. Richardson (six receptions, 137 yards, two TDs) and CT Thomas (five catches, 60 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Air Force is coming off of a 41-35 win over UNLV. The defensive unit let the Rebels run for 139 yards on 33 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Lexington Thomas had a productive outing in the defeat, recording 108 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts for UNLV. For Air Force, Isaiah Sanders completed nine-of-11 passes for 217 yards and one touchdown. Sanders (173 yards on 21 rush attempts, three TDs) mounted the running game while Ronald Cleveland (three receptions, 100 yards, one TD) and Marcus Bennett (two catches, 44 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Boise State’s run the ball on 49.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 81.2 percent. The Broncos have run for 159.1 yards/game (including 142.3 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are logging 263.6 rushing yards per game (261.5 in conference) and have 20 total rush TDs.

The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 321.0 yards through the air overall (286.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Falcons have produced 122.6 pass yards per outing (131 in the MWC) and have four total pass scores.

Boise State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 122.1 yards and pass for 225.1 yards per game. The Air Force defense has allowed 236.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.87 to opponents, while the Falcons have allowed a 7.82 ANY/A.

Sanders has been more productive than Rypien of late. The Falcons man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 11.09 for the season and 9.35 over his last two games while Rypien’s ANY/A is 8.37 (and 8.28 over the past two games).

When these two schools faced each other last year, Boise State knocked off Air Force easily 44-19.

Boise State Broncos at Air Force Falcons Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: Boise State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes,

  • The Over/Under for Boise State’s previous game was set at 61.5. The over cashed in the team’s 56-28 win over Colorado State.
  • Boise State has produced 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Air Force has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.
  • Air Force has lost seven fumbles this season while Boise State has let three get away.
  • Over its last three matches, Boise State is 1-2 ATS.
  • The O/U for Air Force’s last matchup was set at 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-35 victory over UNLV.
  • In its last three games, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Broncos offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Falcons have put up three such plays.
  • The Boise State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Air Force has given up six such plays.
  • The Boise State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Air Force has created 11 such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 10 such runs.
  • The Boise State defensive unit has 22 sacks on the year while Air Force has just eight.