Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack – NCAA Football Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Boise State Broncos and Nevada Wolf Pack are ready to face off on the turf at Clarence Mackay Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for fans on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network will showcase the action.

Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

The less-than-stellar Broncos are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.7 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2.

The Wolf Pack have lost 0.3 units this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-3.

The Broncos have gone 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Wolf Pack are 3-3 SU overall and are also 1-1 SU in conference play.

The Broncos hope to get back in stride after a 19-13 defeat to San Diego State last week. Brett Rypien completed only 21-of-41 passes for 170 yards and two interceptions. Alexander Mattison (66 yards on 25 rush attempts, two TDs) led the running attack in the loss. A.J. Richardson (five receptions, 38 yards) and John Hightower (four catches, 27 yards) shared the receiving duties.

One week ago, Fresno State knocked off this Nevada crew by a score of 21-3. The Wolf Pack let the Bulldogs put up 241 passing yards and 30 rushing yards. Jared Rice put up a solid showing, recording 98 yards and a score on three catches for Fresno State. For Nevada, Cristian Solano completed 22-of-43 passes for 195 yards and three interceptions. Solano (71 yards on 23 rush attempts) and Toa Taua (26 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Kaleb Fossum (12 receptions, 97 yards) and McLane Mannix (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Boise State has run the ball on 47.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 46.8. The Broncos have produced 151.4 rush yards per game (including 106.0 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 10 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Wolf Pack are totaling 162.8 rushing yards per game (154.5 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it seems like the Wolf Pack ought to own an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Broncos have ran for 4.0 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents.

The Broncos offense has logged 325.2 yards/game in the air overall (261.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Wolf Pack have put up 268.5 pass yards per contest (227 against MWC foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Boise State seems to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 131.4 yards and pass for 179.8 yards per game. The Nevada defense has allowed 256.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 133.3 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.30 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 7.45 ANY/A.

Offensively, Rypien is up to 1,217 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 101-of-153 attempts with 10 passing scores and only two interceptions. He has a 7.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.82 over the last two games.

A.J. Richardson, Alexander Mattison and Sean Modster have combined to account for 430 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

Ty Gangi has managed to complete 108-of-183 passes for 1,332 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs for Nevada. His ANY/A sits at 6.72 for the year and 8.91 across his last two outings.

Kaleb Fossum, Toa Taua and McLane Mannix have combined to account for 372 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.

When these two teams met a year ago, Boise State won easily 41-14.

Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack Free Pick

SU Winner: Nevada

Betting Trends

  • The Broncos offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wolf Pack have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Boise State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Nevada has given up seven such plays.
  • The Boise State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Nevada has created 13 such runs.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolf Pack have given up seven such runs.
  • The Boise State D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this year. Nevada has registered 16 sacks.
  • As a team, Boise State has produced 2.17699115044248 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Nevada has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its past two.
  • Over its last three games, Nevada is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Boise State was favored by 13 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was set at 50.5. The under cashed and Boise State failed to cover in the 19-13 defeat to San Diego State.
  • Over its last three contests, Boise State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Nevada was the underdog by 17 points in its last matchup and the O/U was set at 59. The under cashed and Nevada failed to cover in that 21-3 loss to Fresno State.