Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Baltimore Orioles are paying a visit to Citi Field to do battle against the New York Mets. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast this interleague matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets Odds

Baltimore (+110) is entering this game as the underdog against New York (-120) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the current runline odds sitting at -190 for the Orioles +1.5 runs and +165 for the Mets -1.5 runs.

The Orioles are just 17-41 SU and have gone 20-38 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 23.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 21.6 units ATS. Baltimore’s failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 27-30 SU and 26-30 ATS. The team has lost 6.8 units for moneyline bettors and 4.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

New York games have a 25-30-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Baltimore has been a decent under bet with a total record of 25-31-2.

Alex Cobb is getting the nod for the visiting Orioles. The right-handed Cobb is 1-7 with a 6.80 ERA and 25 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mets this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Mets are turning to lefty Jason Vargas (2-3, 8.53 ERA), who has 23 strikeouts and 11 walks to his name as well as a 1.86 WHIP. Vargas only made one start against the Orioles in 2017 (0-1, 5.40 ERA and six strikeouts across five innings).

As a unit, New York’s pitchers have yielded 4.6 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.62 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.

The New York hitters are putting up 4.0 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game over its last 10 games and 2.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .166/.266/.274 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Mets hitters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is hitting .292/.335/.507 with 10 home runs, 34 RBIs and 30 runs scored, while Rosario’s line is .258/.287/.376 with three homers, 18 RBIs and 23 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.3 runs per game and its starters own a 5.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 7.80 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.56.

The Orioles offense has slashed .231/.295/.388 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 2.4 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 1.6 per game over the teams last five outings (0-5 SU).

Shortstop Manny Machado and outfielder Adam Jones continue to lead Baltimore’s offense. Machado is slashing .327/.398/.633 with 18 home runs, 47 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Jones is hitting .284/.303/.474 with 10 homers, 28 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

The Orioles have lost 4.8 units and are 7-12 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 2.5 units and are 18-21 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs hit in 18 of those games, compared to 20 that went under the total.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The Mets have lost five of their last six games SU.
  • Baltimore has recorded 17.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.0 over its last five.
  • The Orioles have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.