Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Free Pick

The Houston Astros are set to host the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park. ESPN will be airing this AL matchup and the game gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros Odds

Vegas has listed Houston (-120) as the favorite over Baltimore (+100). The total sits at nine runs and bettors can take the over for -110 and the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at +220 for the Orioles +1.5 runs and -240 for the Astros -1.5.

The Orioles are 1-2 SU and have gone 0-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 0.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year, despite having lost 2.5 units ATS. The Astros are 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. The team has gained 0.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.8 units ATS.

Houston games have an over/under record of one-2 in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of zero-2.

The Orioles have gained 0.0 units and are 0-2 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in zero of those games, compared to two that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Astros have lost 1.8 units and are 0-1 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in zero of those games, compared to one that went under the total.

Chris Tillman will get the nod for Baltimore. The right-handed Tillman started 19 games last year while finishing the season 1-7 overall with a 7.84 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP.

The Astros are rolling with righty Charlie Morton as their starter. Morton struck out 163 hitters across 146 innings last year (25 starts), while finishing the season 14-7 overall with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

As a unit, Houston’s pitching staff has allowed 2.8 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 2.22, a WHIP of 0.99 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 11.1. The bullpen has a 4.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.

Houston’s offense is putting up 5.5 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game over its last 10 games and 5.5 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .271/.354/.464 over its last five contests and is 3-1 SU during that span.

Shortstop Carlos Correa and second baseman Jose Altuve have led the Astros’ batters this year. Correa is hitting .438/.500/.813 with seven hits, five RBIs and four runs scored, while Altuve is batting .563 with nine hits, two RBIs and five runs scored.

Altuve appeared to have a little trouble facing right-handed pitching at home in 2017. Across 260 such plate appearances, he slashed .296/.358/.412 (compared to his total season line of .345/.409/.547).

In the other dugout, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.56 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 2.77, along with a K/9 of 9.00.

The Orioles offense has slashed .117/.224/.234 on its way to 1.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 1.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.7 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-2 SU).

Baltimore’s offense has been led by Machado Machado and Danny Valencia. Machado is hitting .333/.538/.444 with three hits and zero RBI, while Valencia (.500/.667/.1000) is up to one hit, zero RBI and two runs scored.

Machado seemed to have a little trouble hitting righties on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .227/.264/.387 across 254 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .260/.311/.473).

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Astros went 5-1 SU against the Orioles last season.
  • The Astros’ bullpen managed 5.60 ERA against the Orioles last year.