Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Baltimore Orioles will pay a visit to Boston to square off against their divisional rival Red Sox at Fenway Park. The action will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to New England Sports Network.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Boston (-165) as the favorite over Baltimore (+155). The total is sitting at 9 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for even money (+100). Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds standing at -140 for the Orioles +1.5 runs and +120 for the Red Sox -1.5.

The Orioles are just 13-29 SU and are 17-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.7 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 7.0 units ATS. Baltimore has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 29-14 SU and 20-22 ATS. The teams gained 7.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 3.0 units ATS. Boston has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the under has hit in five of those seven.

Red Sox games have had an over/under record of 20-21-1 so far in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of 20-20-1.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman is the projected starter for Baltimore. Gausman is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face Boston this year, but he made four starts against the Red Sox in 2017, compiling a 1-2 record against them with a 2.45 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

The Red Sox are planning to start lefty David Price (3-4, 4.89 ERA), who’s got 38 strikeouts and 19 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.42 WHIP. Price only made one start against the Orioles in 2017 (1-0, 1.29 ERA and seven strikeouts across seven innings).

Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.44 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 7.56 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.53, along with a K-per-9 of 8.38.

Orioles hitters have slashed .234/.300/.403 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Manny Machado and outfielder Trey Mancini have led Baltimore’s hitters. Machado is slashing .342/.422/.652 with 13 home runs, 38 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Mancini (.271/.347/.439) has produced six homers, 16 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

Machado didn’t do as well batting on the road last season, putting up a slash line of .229/.268/.398 across 336 plate appearances (his overall season line was .260/.311/.473).

For the home team, Boston’s pitching staff has yielded 3.9 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 3.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 25 games against AL East foes, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.30 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.79.

Boston’s hitters have put up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The teams hit .271/.310/.446 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Red Sox hitters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is slashing .353/.428/.733 with 13 home runs, 28 RBIs, 44 runs and eight stolen bases, and Martinez’s line sits at .344/.395/.644 with 12 homers, 36 RBIs and 28 runs.

Martinez enjoyed hitting at home last season. Across 253 plate appearances, he slashed .355/.439/.820 (his total season line was .303/.376/.690).

The Orioles have lost 4.2 units and are 6-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 8.8 units and are 17-15 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 15 that went under the total.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Baltimore has recorded 24.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 24.8 over its last five.
  • The Orioles have hit 21 home runs in their last 10 games, including 13 over their last five.