Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

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The Baltimore Orioles will take on their divisional rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will televise the matchup.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are 31-15 SU and 22-23 ATS. They’ve gained 7.4 units for moneyline bettors while earning 1.7 units against the spread (ATS). The Orioles are 14-31 SU and have gone 18-26 ATS. In total, the teams lost 15.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early part of the season and 9.0 units ATS.

Red Sox games have had an over/under record of 22-22-1 so far in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of 21-22-1.

David Hess is getting the nod for the visiting Orioles. The right-handed Hess is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and three strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Red Sox are handing the ball to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (3-1, 4.68 ERA), who has 51 strikeouts and 16 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.20. Rodriguez is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA over one starts against Baltimore this year.

As a unit, Boston’s pitchers have given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 28 divisional games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.41 and the bullpens ERA is 4.57.

The Boston hitters have put up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .284/.342/.515 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have led the Red Sox batters this year. Betts is slashing .368/.439/.767 with 15 home runs, 32 RBIs, 48 runs and 11 stolen bases, and Martinez line sits at .339/.392/.649 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs and 29 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .303/.376/.690, Martinez performed well at home last year, producing .355/.439/.820 across 253 plate appearances.

For the visitors, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 7.66 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.42, along with a K-per-9 of 8.08.

Orioles hitters have slashed .232/.298/.401 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Baltimore’s hitters have been led by shortstop Manny Machado and left fielder Trey Mancini. Machado is slashing .347/.424/.665 with 14 home runs, 42 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Mancini is hitting .259/.339/.416 with six homers, 16 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

Maintaining a slash line of .229/.268/.398 across 336 plate appearances, Machado didn’t perform especially well on the road last season (compared to his overall season slash line of .260/.311/.473).

The Orioles have lost 3.8 units and are 7-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 9.3 units and are 19-16 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs cashed in 18 of those games, compared to 16 that went under the total.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in four of Boston’s last seven games.
  • The Red Sox have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Baltimore has recorded 24.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.6 over its last five.
  • The Orioles have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 16 over their last 10.