Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Tampa Bay Rays are playing host to the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be televising the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Baltimore (+125) is the underdog against Tampa Bay (-135) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs (+100 for the under and -120 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the most recent odds sitting at -170 for the Orioles +1.5 runs and +150 for the Rays -1.5.

The Orioles are 17-34 SU and are 19-31 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 17.6 units for gamblers taking the moneyline through the early part of the year and 13.4 units ATS. Baltimore has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Rays, on the other hand, are 23-26 SU and 24-24 ATS. They’ve lost 1.3 units for moneyline bettors and 1.6 units ATS. Tampa Bay has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Neither team has established itself as an obvious over/under play this season. Tampa Bay games have an over/under record of 24-22-2 so far in 2018. Baltimore has an over/under record of 23-25-2.

The right-handed Andrew Cashner is projected to start for Baltimore. Cashner is 2-5 with a 4.72 ERA and 50 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Rays this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 4.50 ERA and four strikeouts over six innings).

The Rays are turning to righty Ryne Stanek (0-0, 5.40 ERA), who’s got eight punchouts and three walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.40. Stanek is 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Baltimore this year.

Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have a 4.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 25 games against divisional opponents, Rays starters have an ERA of 5.37 and the bullpens ERA is 4.58.

The Tampa Bay offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .222/.301/.310 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Rays offense has been led by first baseman C.J. Cron and third baseman Matt Duffy. Cron is hitting .266/.319/.479 with 11 home runs, 28 RBIs and 28 runs scored, and Duffy is hitting .322 with 46 hits, 15 RBIs and 10 runs scored.

Cron performed well against right-handed pitchers at home last year. In 143 such plate appearances, he slashed .294/.371/.492 (his overall season line was .248/.305/.437).

For the visitors, Baltimore’s pitching staff allowed 5.4 runs per game and its starters own a 5.35 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 7.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.43, along with a K/9 of 8.28.

The Orioles offense has slashed .234/.298/.395 on its way to 4.0 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Manny Machado and right fielder Adam Jones have paced Baltimore’s offense. Machado is hitting .328/.402/.621 with 15 home runs, 44 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Jones is hitting .279/.296/.466 with nine homers, 25 RBIs and 24 runs scored.

Machado did not do especially well against righties on the road last year. Across 254 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .227/.264/.387 (his overall season line was .260/.311/.473).

The Orioles have lost 13.9 units and are 12-20 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Rays have lost 3.4 units and are 13-17 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 12 that went under the total.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Orioles have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
  • Baltimore has averaged 18.4 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 games and 19.0 over its last five.