Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 10/6/2018 Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Bulldogs of Mississippi State (+3) are gearing up to greet the No. 8 Auburn Tigers (-3) in Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. ESPN2 owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled to get going at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Auburn is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Tigers are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are +135. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points. If the favorites give up points early on, it’ll likely create a worthy live betting opportunity.

This game’s line opened at 3.5. The total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 45.5.

The Tigers are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.0 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 1-4.

The hapless Bulldogs have lost 6.0 units this season. They’re 3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-3.

The Tigers are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 3-2 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.

When these two schools faced each other a year ago, Auburn won soundly 49-10.

Auburn enters this matchup on a zero-game winless skid while Mississippi State has won zero in a row. The Tigers are coming off a resounding 24-13 victory over Southern Miss last week. Jarrett Stidham completed 19-of-33 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns. Kam Martin (90 rushing yards on 24 attempts) led the running attack. Darius Slayton (five receptions, 91 yards) and Sal Cannella (three catches, 16 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One game ago, Florida took care of this Mississippi State crew by a score of 13-6. The Bulldogs defensive unit allowed the Gators to kill the clock by running for 118 yards on 34 rush attempts. Lamical Perine had a good showing in the win, posting 55 rushing yards on 10 attempts for Florida. For Mississippi State, Nick Fitzgerald completed 11-of-26 passes for 98 yards. Fitzgerald (32 rushing yards on 20 attempts) mounted the running game while Osirus Mitchell (three receptions, 35 yards) and Deddrick Thomas (two catches, 21 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Auburn’s run the ball on 61.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has a rush percentage of 56.1 percent. The Tigers have rushed for 178.6 yards per game (including 110.5 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 219.0 rushing yards per game (80.0 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Tigers offense has tallied 197.6 yards/game in the air overall (166.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 214.2 pass yards per contest (122 in the SEC) and have nine total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Auburn has allowed 92.8 rush yards and 211.8 pass yards per game. The Mississippi State D has allowed 166.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 120.4 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Tigers have given up an ANY/A of 3.88 to opposing QBs, while the Bulldogs are allowing an ANY/A of 3.75.

Stidham probably has the advantage over Fitzgerald in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.91for the year and 6.00 over the past two outings. Fitzgerald’s ANY/A is 5.79 for the year and 2.03 over his last two outings.

Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Auburn, ATS Winner: Auburn, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Auburn was favored by 28 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 50.5. The under cashed and Auburn failed to cover in the 24-13 victory over Southern Miss.
  • Auburn, as a team, has averaged 2.88181818181818 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Mississippi State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.7 over its past two.
  • Mississippi State has lost zero fumbles this season while Auburn has let five get away.
  • In its last three games, Auburn is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Mississippi State was favored by 7 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was set at 52. The under cashed and Mississippi State failed to cover in the 13-6 loss to Florida.
  • Over its last three contests, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Tigers offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for three such plays.
  • The Auburn defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Mississippi State has given up one such play.
  • The Auburn offense has created three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created nine such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Tigers have given up 21 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bulldogs have given up 22 such plays.
  • The Auburn defense has 15 sacks on the year while Mississippi State has 14.