Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Atlanta Hawks (22-55), 11.5-point underdogs, will be at AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (41-36) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 3, 2018.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

In their last matchup, the Heat lost a winnable game to the Brooklyn Nets, 110-109, while the Hawks defeated the Orlando Magic, 94-88.

Atlanta’s 0.547 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Orlando, who had a mark of 0.396. The Hawks’ mark was above their season average of 0.512, while the Magic’s was below their season average of 0.515. Miami, on the other hand, held Brooklyn to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.6 (below their season average of 21.7). James Johnson played a pivotal role for Miami with 18 points, six rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Atlanta was led by Dewayne Dedmon, who recorded 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Miami appears to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while Atlanta is 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.512).

Just over half of the Hawks’ games have finished under the total. Atlanta comes into the contest with records of 22-55 straight up (SU) and 36-39-2 against the spread (ATS).

Just over half of Heat games have also finished under the total. Additionally, Miami is 41-36 SU and 39-34-4 ATS.

The Hawks won the most recent matchup by six points to even the season series at one. Taurean Prince was a top performer in the victory, with 24 points and seven rebounds. The Hawks’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Heat. Atlanta had a rate of 11.0, while Miami posted a mark of 17.1. Atlanta covered as a 2-point favorite and the two teams combined for 214 points, which was over the projected point total of 202.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Hawks rank 20th in fast break points per game (10.5) while the Heat rank 28th (8.9).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while Atlanta ranks 27th (26.1).
  • The Heat rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while the Hawks rank 26th (8.7).
  • Miami ranks 12th in points in the paint per game (44.5) while Atlanta ranks 26th (41.2).
  • Atlanta ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 26th (10.9).
  • The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (26.2) while the Hawks rank 26th (30.7).
  • The Hawks rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (17.6) while the Heat rank 17th (16.2).
  • Miami ranks 17th in rebounds per game (43.2) while Atlanta ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
  • Miami averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Atlanta is 11-4 and Miami is 25-6.
  • The Hawks are 18-30 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 29-18.
  • Miami is 16-20-2 ATS at home, while Atlanta is 17-19-2 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 19 of the Heat’s 38 home games, while 22 of the Hawks’ 38 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Atlanta and Miami have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Heat are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Hawks are 1-4.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 0.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 98.4 points per game (5.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.8 points per game (1.1 below their season average).