Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Atlanta Braves will be facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The game gets going at 7:05 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be shown on both ATPT and FSSE.

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Pittsburgh (-120) is favored over Atlanta (+110) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. Runline odds sit at -190 for taking the Braves +1.5 runs and +165 for the Pirates -1.5.

The Pirates are 63-63 straight up (SU) and 60-65 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle a lot for gamblers, gaining 0.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 8.8 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, have gone 69-55 SU this year and are 63-59 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 17.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have lost 0.2 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven.

Neither squad has positioned itself as a strong over/under bet this season. Pirates games have had an over/under record of 58-59-8 in 2018. Braves games have gone over 59 times, gone under 58 times and pushed on five occasions.

Kevin Gausman will get the start for the visiting Braves. The right-handed Gausman is 7-9 with a 4.22 ERA and 116 strikeouts. He has yet to face Pittsburgh this year, but he did make two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 0-1 record with an 8.44 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Pirates will turn to righty Ivan Nova (7-7, 4.26 ERA) to the mound. Nova has 91 strikeouts and 27 walks to his name, as well as a 1.30 WHIP. Nova made two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a spotless 2-0 record in 2017, putting together a spotless 2-0 record with a 2.51 ERA and five strikeouts.

As a unit, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.07 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.

Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game over its last 10 games and 1.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .231/.318/.301 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Pirates’ offense has been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is slashing .308/.339/.483 with 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Marte’s line is .275/.319/.462 with 17 homers, 57 RBIs, 63 runs and 28 steals.

In the visiting dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.65 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.16, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K-per-9 of 9.17.

Braves hitters have slashed .262/.327/.426 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 5.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Atlanta’s offensive production has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis, who collectively have belted 34 home runs. Freeman is slashing .322/.404/.532 with 20 home runs, 77 RBIs and 79 runs scored, while Markakis (.318/.379/.489) has produced 14 homers, 81 RBIs and 69 runs scored.

The Braves have gained 17.9 units and are 47-38 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 40 of those games, compared to 41 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 7.2 units and are 44-43 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 36 of those games, compared to 44 that went under.

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Atlanta has tallied 10 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Pittsburgh has nine XBH over its last five.
  • Atlanta fielders have four errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for Pittsburgh over its last 10.
  • The Braves have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit five over their last 10.