Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The struggling Philadelphia Phillies are trying to avoid losing their 10th in a row when they play host to the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and FOX Sports South will be airing the matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Atlanta (+145) is the underdog against Philadelphia (-155) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The game’s current runline odds sit at -150 for taking the Braves +1.5 runs and +130 for the Phillies -1.5.

The Phillies are 78-82 straight up (SU) and 71-88 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 9.7 units for moneyline bettors and 29.6 units (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Braves are 90-70 SU and have gone 81-77 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 21.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.6 units ATS. Atlanta’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Phillies games have had an over/under record of 73-80-6 in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 76-76-6.

Anibal Sanchez will get the nod for the Braves. The right-handed Sanchez (7-6, 2.96 ERA) has racked up 128 strikeouts in 130.2 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are sending righty Aaron Nola (16-6, 2.45 ERA) to the mound. Nola has 216 strikeouts and 54 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 0.98. Nola is 1-2 with 15 strikeouts and a 2.96 ERA over four starts against Atlanta this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.16, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 74 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.11 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.61.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 1.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .193/.282/.335 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera have led the charge for the Phillies’ batters this year. Hernandez is hitting .253/.358/.358 with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs, 90 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Herrera is hitting .257 with 22 homers, 70 RBIs and 64 runs.

For the visitors, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.52 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.65 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.14, along with a K/9 of 8.93.

The Braves offense has slashed .258/.327/.420 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis have led Atlanta’s hitters. Freeman is hitting .312/.389/.509 with 23 home runs, 98 RBIs and 94 runs scored. Markakis (.297/.363/.440) has produced 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 78 runs scored.

The Braves have gained 25.1 units and are 63-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 53 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 13.4 units and are 54-68 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 55 of those games, as opposed to 63 which went under the total.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Atlanta has recorded 13 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Philadelphia has 14 XBH over its last five.
  • The Braves have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit eight over their last 10.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 14.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 14.2 over its last five.