Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

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The Philadelphia Phillies are set to play host to the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. NBC Sports Philadelphia will showcase the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Atlanta (receiving -135) is favored over Philadelphia (+125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 10 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at +110 for the Braves -1.5 runs and -130 for the Phillies +1.5.

The Braves are 90-56 SU and have gone 73-72 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 24.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 1.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 75-69 SU and 68-75 ATS. The team’s lost 5.2 units for moneyline bettors and 7.4 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 68-71-4 in 2019. Atlanta has an over/under record of 70-67-8.

Dallas Keuchel is getting the nod for the visiting Braves. The left-handed Keuchel is 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 73 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are turning to righty Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.31 ERA), who has 112 strikeouts and 37 walks, in addition to a 1.34 WHIP. Eflin is 0-2 with four strikeouts and a 19.06 ERA over two starts against Atlanta this year.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.58 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.62 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 63 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.80 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.69.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .263/.314/.526 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is hitting .279/.332/.398 with 10 home runs, 61 RBIs and 68 runs scored, and Segura is batting .284 with 11 homers, 54 RBIs and 76 runs.

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.42, along with a K/9 of 9.26.

Braves hitters have slashed .259/.339/.457 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies continue to lead Atlanta’s offense. Freeman is hitting .305/.395/.573 with 38 home runs, 117 RBIs and 111 runs scored, while Albies is hitting .288/.346/.488 with 21 homers, 76 RBIs, 93 runs and 15 stolen bases.

The Braves have gained 15.5 units and are 56-57 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 55 of those games, compared to 53 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 10.2 units and are 15-22 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve cashed the under.

Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in just two of Atlanta’s last seven contests.
  • The Braves have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
  • The Braves have a team OPS of .796 this season and an OPS of .798 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .755 overall and .740 versus righties.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 22.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.8 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have won three of their last four games SU.