Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

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The Philadelphia Phillies are playing host to the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports Southeast.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Atlanta (+140) is the underdog to Philadelphia (-150) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the games total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the current runline odds standing at -155 for the Braves +1.5 runs and +135 for the Phillies -1.5.

The Phillies are 27-19 SU and 22-23 ATS. They’ve gained 7.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 3.0 units against the spread (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Braves are 29-18 SU and have gone 28-18 ATS. Overall, the teams accumulated 12.9 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 9.7 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Neither team has been an obvious over/under play this season. Philadelphia games have a 20-22-3 over/under record so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 22-21-3.

Left-hander Luiz Gohara is the probable starter for Atlanta. Gohara is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and five strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 1.29 ERA and nine strikeouts across seven innings).

The Phillies will put the ball in the right hand of Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), who’s got 28 punchouts and 16 walks this season. Arrieta did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 3.8 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The teams starting pitching staff has a 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.61 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 24 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 3.67 and the bullpens ERA is 4.08.

The Philadelphia offense has produced 4.6 runs per outing, including 3.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .191/.260/.340 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies offense this year. Herrera is slashing .345/.410/.542 with seven home runs, 30 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Hernandez is batting .277 with six homers, 16 RBIs, 34 runs and nine stolen bases.

Hernandez enjoyed batting against lefties at home last year. Across 78 such plate appearances, he slashed .352/.410/.577 (a drop from his total season line of .296/.376/.425).

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.49, along with a WHIP of 1.33 and a K/9 of 9.05.

Braves hitters have slashed .264/.338/.430 on their way to 5.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Atlanta’s hitters have been led by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who collectively have launched 16 home runs. Markakis is hitting .340/.410/.511 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Freeman (.326/.427/.556) has produced nine homers, 35 RBIs, 32 runs and five steals.

Markakis enjoyed batting against right-handed pitching on the road last season. Over 257 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .327/.428/.442 (compared to his overall season line of .275/.354/.384).

The Braves have gained 6.6 units and are 21-13 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.8 units and are 6-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to five which went under the total.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Both teams have hit 13 home runs over their last 10 outings.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 19.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 15.6 over its last five.
  • The Braves have won three of their last four games SU.