Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Free Pick

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Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves will head north to take on their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will be airing the action and the game is scheduled to get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Odds

Atlanta (+160) is hosting this one as the underdog against New York (-170) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Braves +1.5 (-135) and Mets -1.5 (+115).

The Braves are 77-52 SU and are 62-66 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 13.3 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 2.8 units ATS. Atlanta’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 67-60 SU and 65-61 ATS. The team’s lost 2.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.

New York games have an over/under record of 65-49-12 in 2019. The Braves have also been a decent over bet with a total record of 64-56-8.

Mike Foltynewicz is getting the nod for the visiting Braves. The right-handed Foltynewicz is 4-5 with a 6.09 ERA and 69 strikeouts. He has yet to face New York this year, but he made two starts against the Mets in 2018, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 1.64 ERA and 11 strikeouts.

The Mets are sending righty Jacob deGrom (8-7, 2.61 ERA) to the mound. deGrom has 194 strikeouts and 38 walks to his name as well as a 1.05 WHIP. deGrom is 1-2 with 26 strikeouts and a 3.72 ERA over three starts against Atlanta this year.

Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.24 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.40, along with a WHIP of 1.38 and a K/9 of 9.27.

Braves hitters have slashed .262/.339/.460 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).

Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman continue to lead Atlanta’s offense. Acuna Jr. is slashing .296/.377/.539 with 36 home runs, 88 RBIs, 106 runs and 29 stolen bases. Freeman (.304/.395/.575) has produced 34 homers, 103 RBIs and 100 runs scored.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitching staff has given up 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 5.12 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 57 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.45 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.64.

The New York offense is putting up 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .291/.351/.459 over its last five games and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

The Mets’ hitters have been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .292/.330/.450 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs, 62 runs and 15 stolen bases, and McNeil’s line is .332/.400/.529 with 15 homers, 55 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

The Braves have gained 6.8 units and are 46-52 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 49 of those games, compared to 44 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.8 units and are 49-47 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 52 of those games, compared to 35 which went under the total.

Braves vs. Mets MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in three of New York’s last seven games.
  • Atlanta fielders have three errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for New York over its last 10.
  • The Braves have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit six over their last 10.
  • The Braves have a team OPS of .799 this season and an OPS of .799 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS stands at .768 overall and .758 versus righties.