Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Atlanta Braves are ready to face off against their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will broadcast the matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Odds

Vegas is listing New York (-155) as the favorite over Atlanta (+145). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at -115 for over 7 runs and -105 for under 7. The game’s current runline odds stand at -150 for betting the Braves +1.5 runs and +130 for the Mets -1.5.

The Mets are 78-77 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 73-84 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 9.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.4 units (ATS). New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Braves are 89-68 SU and have gone 80-75 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 22.1 units for moneyline bettors and 1.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

New York games have an over/under record of 68-78-9 in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 75-74-6.

Sean Newcomb is getting the start for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) has racked up 151 strikeouts in 158.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA against New York this year (two starts).

The Mets will turn to righty Jacob deGrom (9-9, 1.77 ERA), who has 259 strikeouts and 46 walks as well as a 0.94 WHIP. deGrom is 0-2 with 40 strikeouts and a 1.09 ERA across five starts against Atlanta this year.

Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.58 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.09, along with a WHIP of 1.22 and a K-per-9 of 8.83.

Braves hitters have slashed .258/.328/.422 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).

Atlanta’s offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis, who’ve collectively belted 37 home runs. Freeman is hitting .310/.388/.505 with 23 home runs, 95 RBIs and 94 runs scored, while Markakis (.303/.370/.449) has produced 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 77 runs scored.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 3.67, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 71 games against NL East foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.54 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.08.

The New York hitters have put up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .223/.340/.354 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Mets’ hitters have been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto. Rosario is hitting .259/.298/.388 with nine home runs, 50 RBIs, 76 runs and 22 stolen bases, and Conforto’s line sits at .244/.350/.448 with 27 homers, 81 RBIs and 75 runs.

The Braves have gained 24.7 units and are 62-49 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 52 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 7.1 units and are 20-21 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 22 that went under the total.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in five of Atlanta’s last seven games.
  • Atlanta fielders have committed zero errors over their last five games, compared to four errors for New York over its last five.
  • The Braves have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit five over their last 10.