Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are facing off against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. FOX Sports South will be televising the action and the game will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+120) is coming into this one as the underdog to Atlanta (-130) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the games total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Runline odds stand at +115 for betting the Braves -1.5 runs and -135 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Braves are 22-15 SU and have gone 23-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 10.6 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 14-24 SU and 18-19 ATS. They’ve lost 2.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.3 units ATS. Miami has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Marlins games have had an over/under record of 18-19 so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 17-16-3.

Mike Soroka will get the nod for the visiting Braves. Soroka is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and eight strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Marlins will put the ball in the left hand of Jarlin Garcia (1-1, 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), who has 26 strikeouts and 15 walks this season. Garcia did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.3 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 4.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.34 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 11 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.26 and the bullpens ERA is 6.40.

The Miami hitters are putting up 3.4 runs per contest, including 3.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .241/.301/.401 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Marlins offense has been led by catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Justin Bour. Realmuto is slashing .325/.395/.558 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Bour is batting .223 with seven homers, 18 RBIs and 12 runs.

Realmuto seemed to take a step back when hitting at home last year, slashing .224/.287/.340 over 265 plate appearances (his total season line was .278/.332/.451).

For the visitors, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.82 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.61, along with a WHIP of 1.34 and a K/9 of 9.34.

The Braves offense has slashed .268/.338/.437 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Atlanta’s offense has been powered by right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have combined to belt 13 home runs. Markakis is slashing .345/.420/.554 with seven home runs, 29 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Freeman (.319/.420/.546) is up to six homers, 28 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .278/.357/.524 across 143 plate appearances, Freeman did not seem to enjoy hitting against left-handed pitchers last season (his total season line was .307/.403/.586).

The Braves have gained 2.9 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against -handed starting pitchers.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Braves have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 10 over their last 10.
  • Miami has recorded 18.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.0 over its last five.