Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox are playing host to the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park. This interleague matchup will get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will broadcast the game.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Odds

Atlanta (+115) is entering this game as the underdog against Boston (-125) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 10 runs (+100 for the under and -120 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -180 for the Braves +1.5 runs and +160 for the Red Sox -1.5.

The Braves have gone 29-20 SU this year and are 29-19 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 12.9 units for moneyline bettors and 8.8 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 35-16 SU and 26-24 ATS. The team has gained 10.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.8 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Neither side has been a strong over/under play this year. Red Sox games have an over/under record of 23-25-2 so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 22-23-3.

Left-hander Sean Newcomb is projected to start for the visiting Braves. Newcomb is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 58 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Red Sox are sending lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97 ERA) to the mound. Pomeranz has 28 punchouts and 16 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.78 WHIP. Pomeranz did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

As a unit, Boston’s pitching staff has given up 3.7 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have an ERA of 3.61, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.

The Boston hitters have put up 5.3 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .241/.330/.487 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Red Sox batters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is hitting .361/.438/.761 with 17 home runs, 37 RBIs, 50 runs and 13 steals, while Martinez is hitting .326 with 16 homers, 42 RBIs and 33 runs.

Betts seemed to enjoy hitting lefty pitching at home in 2017. Across 76 such plate appearances, he slashed .358/.421/.567 (compared to his overall season line of .264/.344/.459).

In the visiting dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.47 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.62, along with a K-per-9 of 8.90.

The Braves offense has slashed .263/.336/.424 on its way to 5.1 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Atlanta’s hitters have been led by outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Markakis is slashing .344/.414/.513 with seven home runs, 34 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Freeman (.324/.425/.546) is up to nine homers, 35 RBIs, 33 runs and five steals.

Freeman taken a step back when hitting left-handed pitchers last season. Over 143 plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .278/.357/.524 (his overall season line was .307/.403/.586).

The Braves have gained 6.3 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox have lost 3.0 units and are 3-8 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Braves have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 19 over their last 10.
  • Boston has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 19.6 over its last five.
  • The Braves have lost three of their last four games SU while the Red Sox have won five of their last six SU.