Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox are playing host to the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will be televising this interleague matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Boston (-245) is hosting this game as the favorite against Atlanta (+225) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at Braves +1.5 runs (+100) and Red Sox -1.5 runs (-120).

The Red Sox are 36-16 SU and 27-24 ATS. They’ve gained 11.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.9 units against the spread (ATS). Boston has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Braves have gone 29-21 SU this year and are 29-20 ATS. In total, the teams gained 11.9 units for moneyline bettors and 7.5 units ATS. Atlantahas covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Red Sox games have an over/under record of 23-26-2 so far in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 22-24-3.

Mike Foltynewicz will get the nod for Atlanta. The right-handed Foltynewicz is 3-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 62 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Red Sox are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Chris Sale (5-1, 2.17 ERA), who has 96 strikeouts and 17 walks to his name, as well as a 0.91 WHIP. Sale did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The teams starters have an ERA of 3.72, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

The Boston hitters have produced 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .229/.328/.452 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Red Sox batters have been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is hitting .359/.437/.750 with 17 home runs, 37 RBIs, 52 runs and 13 steals, while Martinez is batting .320 with 16 homers, 42 RBIs and 33 runs.

Martinez appeared to enjoy hitting at home last season. Across 253 plate appearances, he slashed .355/.439/.820 (a drop from his overall season line of .303/.376/.690).

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.53 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.88 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.67, along with a WHIP of 1.36.

The Braves offense has slashed .264/.337/.427 on its way to 5.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 2.2 per game over the teams last five outings (1-4 SU).

Outfielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led Atlanta’s offense. Markakis is slashing .347/.413/.523 with seven home runs, 35 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Freeman (.326/.425/.542) is up to nine homers, 36 RBIs, 33 runs and five stolen bases.

Freeman did not seem to enjoy batting against lefty pitching last season, maintaining a slash line of .278/.357/.524 across 143 plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .307/.403/.586).

The Braves have gained 5.3 units and are 7-6 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in seven of those games, as opposed to six that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 14.3 units and are 24-16 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve cashed the under.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Braves have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 19 over their last 10.
  • Boston has recorded 22.4 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 games and 19.4 over its last five.
  • The Braves have lost four of their last five games SU while the Red Sox have won six of their last seven SU.