Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Atlanta Braves are ready to face their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York is in line to showcase the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Odds

Oddsmakers are listing New York (-155) as the favorite over Atlanta (+145). Gamblers can bet on the games total with odds posted at -120 for over 7.5 runs and even money (+100) for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the current odds coming in at Braves +1.5 runs (-150) and Mets +-1.5 runs (+130).

The Braves are 17-11 SU and have gone 17-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 8.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 7.3 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 17-10 SU and 15-11 ATS. The team has gained 8.7 units for moneyline bettors and 5.1 units ATS. New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

New York games have a 14-11-1 over/under record so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 13-11-3.

Sean Newcomb will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Newcomb is 1-1 with a 4.23 ERA and 34 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against New York this year (three starts).

The Mets are sending righty Jacob deGrom (3-0, 2.06 ERA) to the mound. deGrom has 48 punchouts and 11 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.04. deGrom is 0-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA across one starts against Atlanta this year.

Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.08 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.92, along with a K-per-9 of 9.50.

The Braves offense has slashed .273/.346/.439 on its way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Atlanta’s hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies, who collectively have belted 13 home runs. Freeman is hitting .318/.435/.561 with four home runs, 21 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Albies is hitting .289 with nine homers, 20 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitchers have given up 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.13, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.1. The bullpen has a 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 15 games against divisional opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.54 and the bullpens ERA is 3.91.

The New York offense is putting up 4.8 runs per outing, including 4.8 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The teams hit .262/.332/.387 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Mets offense has been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier. Cabrera is hitting .337/.388/.567 with five home runs, 17 RBIs and 20 runs scored, and Frazier’s line is .266/.398/.447 with four homers, 17 RBIs and 17 runs.

Compared to his total season slash line of .280/.351/.434, Cabrera did not do as well batting against left-handed pitching at home in 2017, slashing .268/.288/.286 over 59 such plate appearances.

The Braves have gained 6.9 units and are 16-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to nine that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 3.5 units and are 5-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to four which went under the total.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have won five of their last six games SU.
  • New York has recorded 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.2 over its last five.
  • The Braves have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 10 over their last 10.