Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins will play host to their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. FOX Sports South is in line to broadcast the matchup. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+110) is coming into this one as the underdog against Atlanta (-120) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the most recent runline odds standing at Braves -1.5 runs (+125) and Marlins 1.5 runs (-145).

The Braves are 23-15 SU and have gone 23-14 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 10.2 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 9.6 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 14-25 SU and 19-19 ATS. The teams lost 1.4 units for moneyline bettors and 3.4 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven.

Miami games have an over/under record of 19-19 so far in 2018. The Braves have an over/under record of 18-16-3.

Sean Newcomb will get the nod for the Braves. The left-handed Newcomb is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 48 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made two starts against the Marlins in 2017, posting a 0-1 record against them with a 4.91 ERA and eight strikeouts.

The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of righty Jose Urena (0-5, 4.37 ERA), who’s got 38 strikeouts and 11 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.28 WHIP. Urena made five starts against the Braves in 2017, compiling a 2-1 record with a 2.76 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.4 runs per game overall this season. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.85, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 5.53 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 12 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.34 and the bullpens ERA is 6.94.

Miami’s hitters are putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .254/.319/.420 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Marlins batters have been led by catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Justin Bour. Realmuto is slashing .317/.385/.549 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Bour is batting .228 with seven homers, 18 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

Realmuto especially enjoyed hitting against lefty pitching at home last year. In 61 such plate appearances, he slashed .327/.377/.582 (his total season line was .278/.332/.451).

For the visiting squad, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.50, along with a K-per-9 of 9.25.

Braves hitters have slashed .270/.341/.445 on their way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the teams last five outings (4-1 SU).

First baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis have led Atlanta’s hitters. Freeman is slashing .331/.431/.593 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Markakis is hitting .346/.420/.549 with seven homers, 29 RBIs and 28 runs scored.

Markakis appeared to enjoy hitting right-handed pitchers on the road last season, putting up a slash line of .327/.428/.442 across 257 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .275/.354/.384).

The Braves have gained 7.3 units and are 18-10 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 11 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.1 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to three that went under the total.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Braves have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
  • Atlanta has posted 24.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.8 over its last five.
  • The Braves have won four of their last five games SU.