Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Atlanta Braves are set to square off against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. This NL showdown will get underway at 6:40 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports Ohio.

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Atlanta (-110) is entering this game as the favorite over Cincinnati (+100) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at +100 for the under and -120 for the over. Gamblers can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at Braves -1.5 runs (+135) and Reds 1.5 runs (-155).

The Braves are 12-10 SU and have gone 14-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 6.2 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 7.5 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 5-18 SU and 9-13 ATS. They’ve lost 13.3 units for moneyline bettors and 8.4 units ATS. Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 9-13 so far in 2018. Braves games have gone over nine times, gone under nine times and pushed on three occasions.

Right-hander Matt Wisler will get the nod for the visiting Braves. Wisler is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and eight strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Reds will turn to lefty Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 11.05 ERA) to the mound. Finnegan has six strikeouts and eight walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 2.59. Finnegan did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 5.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 5.44 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.38 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 8.1 K/9.

The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .253/.342/.347 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Left fielder Jesse Winker and catcher Tucker Barnhart have led the Reds’ offense this year. Winker is hitting .298/.431/.351 with 17 hits, seven RBIs and six runs scored, and Barnhart’s line is .250/.351/.406 with 16 hits, five RBIs and six runs scored.

Winker seemed to enjoy hitting righties in 2017, slashing .344/.427/.615 over 110 plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .298/.375/.529).

In the visiting dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.50 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.38, along with a K/9 of 9.17.

The Braves offense has slashed .262/.341/.425 on its way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Atlanta’s hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and catcher Kurt Suzuki. Freeman is hitting .296/.431/.543 with four home runs, 17 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Suzuki is hitting .327/.409/.600 with four homers, 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .278/.357/.524 across 143 plate appearances, Freeman did not do as well hitting against lefty pitching last year (compared to his total season slash line of .307/.403/.586).

The Braves have gained 0.4 units and are 1-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in one of those games, as opposed to one that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 12.5 units and are 7-12 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to 12 that went under the total.

Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have lost three of their last four games SU.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 18.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.4 over its last five.
  • The Braves have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.