Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Atlanta Braves are set to face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast this NL showdown and the game gets underway at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Atlanta (-125) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+115). Gamblers are able to bet on the game’s total with odds listed at -120 for over 8.5 runs and even money (+100) for under 8.5. Runline odds stand at +120 for betting the Braves -1.5 runs and -140 for the Reds +1.5 runs.

The Reds are only 4-18 SU and 8-13 ATS. They’ve lost 14.5 units for moneyline bettors and 9.4 units against the spread (ATS). Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven. The Braves are 12-9 SU and have gone 14-6 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 7.5 units for moneyline gamblers through the early part of the year and 8.5 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Cincinnati games have an over/under record of 8-13 so far in 2018. Braves games have gone under nine times, gone over eight times and pushed on three occasions.

Brandon McCarthy will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The right-handed McCarthy is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Reds are turning to righty Tyler Mahle (1-3, 5.14 ERA), who has 20 punchouts and seven walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.57. Mahle did not record a start against the Braves in 2017.

Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.07 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.26, along with a WHIP of 1.29 and a K-per-9 of 9.19.

The Braves offense has slashed .263/.343/.422 on its way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies have led Atlanta’s hitters. Freeman is hitting .293/.438/.480 with 22 hits, 15 RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Albies (.289/.333/.611) is up to 26 hits, six homers, 12 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has given up 5.5 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has a 5.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.33 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

The Cincinnati offense has produced 3.2 runs per outing, including 3.3 per game over its last 10 games and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .214/.313/.258 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Reds’ hitters have been led by outfielder Jesse Winker and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Winker is slashing .296/.441/.333 with 16 hits, six RBIs and six runs scored, while Barnhart’s line is .250/.348/.417 with 15 hits, four RBIs and five runs.

Compared to his total season slash line of .298/.375/.529, Winker performed well against right-handed pitching last year, slashing .344/.427/.615 over 110 plate appearances.

The Braves have gained 7.0 units and are 13-5 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 13.7 units and are 6-12 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in six of those games, compared to 12 that went under the total.

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • Cincinnati has posted 17.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 17.0 over its last five.
  • The Braves have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit five over their last 10.