Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Victor TrejosBaseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to square off against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The game gets underway 7:35 p.m. ET and FOX Sports South will televise the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (-135) is favored over Philadelphia (+125) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at -170 for betting the Phillies +1.5 runs and +150 for the Braves -1.5.

The Braves are 85-68 straight up (SU) and 77-74 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 17.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.8 units (ATS). Atlanta has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Phillies have gone 78-74 SU this year and are 70-81 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 0.9 units for moneyline gamblers and 20.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have a 73-72-6 over/under record in 2018. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 68-77-6.

The right-handed Nick Pivetta is the probable starter for Philadelphia. Pivetta (7-13, 4.67 ERA) has recorded 181 strikeouts in 154.1 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with 18 strikeouts and a 3.43 ERA against Atlanta this year (four starts).

The Braves are turning to righty Julio Teheran (9-8, 3.97 ERA), who has 152 strikeouts and 79 walks to his name as well as a 1.19 WHIP. Teheran is 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.98, along with a K-per-9 of 9.12.

The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.318/.397 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera have paced Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .254/.358/.360 with 13 home runs, 54 RBIs, 87 runs and 19 steals, while Herrera (.256/.313/.427) has produced 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 64 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 3.57 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 67 games against divisional foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.14 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.91.

The Atlanta hitters have put up 4.8 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .253/.351/.416 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis. Freeman is slashing .311/.390/.509 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 94 runs scored, and the line for Markakis stands at .304/.370/.453 with 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 77 runs.

The Phillies have lost 4.7 units and are 53-61 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 60 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 20.1 units and are 59-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 52 which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has logged 11 extra-base hits over its last five games. Atlanta has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • Atlanta has recorded 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.0 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit seven over their last 10.