Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Arizona Diamondbacks will head east to Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona is in line to televise this NL showdown.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia (-110) as the favorite over Arizona (+100). The total sits at 8 runs and bettors can take the over for -105 and the under for -115. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -210 for the Diamondbacks +1.5 runs and +175 for the Phillies -1.5.

The Phillies are 14-7 SU and 8-13 ATS. The team’s gained 6.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 7.7 units against the spread (ATS). Philadelphia has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Diamondbacks have gone 15-6 SU this year and are 12-9 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 9.8 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 4.1 units ATS. Arizona is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Phillies games have had an over/under record of 8-10-3 so far in 2018. Arizona has an over/under record of 9-11-1.

Left-hander Robbie Ray is getting the nod for the visiting Diamondbacks. Ray is 2-0 with a 4.98 ERA and 32 strikeouts. He has yet to face Philadelphia this year, but he made two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record with a 4.63 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Phillies are going with righty Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80 ERA), who’s got 24 strikeouts and five walks to his name, as well as a 1.36 WHIP. Velasquez did not record a start against the Diamondbacks in 2017.

Arizona’s pitchers have allowed 3.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.26 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.38 K/9. The bullpen has logged an excellent ERA of just 1.88, along with a WHIP of 1.07 and a K-per-9 of 8.75.

The Diamondbacks offense has slashed .225/.308/.399 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and right fielder A.J. Pollock have led Arizona’s offense. Goldschmidt is slashing .278/.429/.569 with four home runs, 11 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Pollock (.270/.329/.608) is up to five homers, 16 RBIs, 12 runs and five stolen bases.

Goldschmidt didn’t do as well hitting against righty pitching on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .264/.368/.462 across 250 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .298/.405/.560).

In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 3.5 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.01, a WHIP of 1.14 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.5. The bullpen has a 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.6 K/9.

Philadelphia’s hitters are putting up 5.0 runs per contest, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 4.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .235/.322/.333 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ offense has been led by left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is slashing .323/.483/.615 with four home runs, 19 RBIs and 15 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line is .280/.409/.400 with 21 hits, nine RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.

Hernandez enjoyed batting against lefties at home last year. Across 78 such plate appearances, he slashed .352/.410/.577 (his overall season line was .296/.376/.425).

The Diamondbacks have lost 0.5 units and are 4-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in four of those games, as opposed to six that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 5.3 units and are 4-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to one that went under the total.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Arizona has posted 18.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.0 over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit five over their last 10.
  • /ul>