Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be shown on FB.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas is listing Arizona (+110) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-120). Bettors are able to wager on the game’s total with odds listed at -120 for over 8.5 runs and even money (+100) for under 8.5. You can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at Diamondbacks +1.5 runs (-190) and Phillies +-1.5 runs (+165).

The Diamondbacks are 16-7 SU and have gone 13-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 10.8 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 5.5 units ATS. Arizona’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 15-8 SU and 8-14 ATS. They’ve gained 5.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 9.2 units ATS. Philadelphia has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Philadelphia games have a 9-10-3 over/under record so far in 2018. The Diamondbacks have an over/under record of 10-11-1.

Matt Koch will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. The right-handed Koch is 0-0 with a 1.13 ERA and seven strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Phillies are sending righty Ben Lively (0-1, 4.64 ERA) to the mound. Lively has 21 punchouts and six walks to his name, as well as a 1.55 WHIP. Lively made two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record in 2017, compiling a 0-1 record with a 5.56 ERA.

Arizona’s pitching staff allowed 3.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.91 K/9. The bullpen has an outstanding ERA of just 1.84, along with a K/9 of 8.85.

The Diamondbacks offense has slashed .227/.312/.399 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder A.J. Pollock have led Arizona’s hitters. Goldschmidt is hitting .259/.400/.519 with four home runs, 11 RBIs and 19 runs scored, while Pollock (.280/.341/.585) has produced five homers, 17 RBIs, 14 runs and six steals.

Putting up a slash line of .264/.368/.462 across 250 plate appearances, Goldschmidt did not seem to enjoy batting against right-handed pitchers on the road last year (compared to his overall season line of .298/.405/.560).

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 3.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 3.08, a WHIP of 1.13 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 3.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

The Philadelphia hitters have produced 5.0 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .248/.320/.360 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ batters have been led by outfielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is hitting .324/.484/.592 with four home runs, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line is .313/.431/.434 with 26 hits, 10 RBIs, 18 runs and five steals.

The Diamondbacks have gained 0.5 units and are 5-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in five of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 0.9 units and are 4-12 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Phillies have won five of their last six games SU.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 20 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20 over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit five over their last 10.