Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Jonathan GarosBaseball, MLB

The Arizona Diamondbacks are traveling east to Great American Ball Park to face off against the Cincinnati Reds. Fox Sports Arizona is in line to broadcast this NL matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (+110) is coming into this one as the underdog against Arizona (-120) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at +125 for the Diamondbacks -1.5 runs and -145 for the Reds +1.5 runs.

The Reds are 66-49 against the spread (ATS), but only 48-64 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 5.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 5.2 units (ATS). Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Diamondbacks are 63-51 SU and have gone 59-57 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 5.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS. Arizona is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Reds games have an over/under record of 60-51-4 in 2018. Arizona has an over/under record of 54-57-5.

Clay Buchholz will get the nod for the visiting Diamondbacks. The right-handed Buchholz is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 51 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 7.20 ERA and three strikeouts over five innings).

The Reds are turning to righty Anthony DeSclafani (4-3, 5.47 ERA), who’s got 48 strikeouts and 17 walks as well as a 1.35 WHIP. DeSclafani did not pitch in the majors in 2017.

Arizona’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.38 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.06, along with a K/9 of 7.89.

The Diamondbacks offense has slashed .237/.318/.402 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 5.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Left fielder David Peralta and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have led Arizona’s offense. Peralta is slashing .298/.355/.516 with 19 home runs, 56 RBIs and 53 runs scored. Goldschmidt is hitting .274 with 24 homers, 60 RBIs and 70 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 5.30, a WHIP of 1.45 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 4.09 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.8 K/9.

The Cincinnati offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game over its last 10 games and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .226/.282/.315 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

The Reds’ batters have been led by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is hitting .311/.362/.494 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Peraza’s line sits at .279/.323/.382 with six homers, 39 RBIs, 57 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Diamondbacks have gained 4.8 units and are 40-34 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 35 of those games, compared to 37 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 9.3 units and are 47-38 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 43 of those games, compared to 39 that’ve cashed the under.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes,

  • The over has cashed in three of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
  • The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Arizona has recorded 25.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.2 over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.