Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers – Free Week 5 Betting Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Arizona Cardinals (+5) are heading west to face their NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. FOX is scheduled to televise the action and this late afternoon game starts at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

In this Sunday NFC game, San Francisco is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 5 points. The Cardinals are also receiving +160 moneyline odds while the 49ers are -180. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points. Some good live betting opportunities should exist during this game.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Cardinals. The line initially opened at -6 while the O/U was originally 41.

The Cardinals are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.3 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-4.

The 49ers are down 2.0 units this season. The team is 1-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-1.

The Cardinals are 0-4 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against NFC West opponents. The 49ers are 1-3 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Cardinals are still looking for their first win after a 20-17 defeat to Seattle last week. Josh Rosen completed only 15 passes on 27 attempts for 180 yards and one touchdown. David Johnson (just 71 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack while Christian Kirk (four receptions, 28 yards) and Johnson (three catches, 41 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

In Week 4, the Chargers got the victory against this San Francisco team by a score of 29-27. The Niners defense allowed the Chargers to rush for 126 yards on 27 attempts. Melvin Gordon III was a force to be reckoned with, recording 104 rushing yards on 15 attempts, along with 55 yards on seven catches for Los Angeles. For San Francisco, C.J. Beathard completed 23-of-37 passes for 298 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Matt Breida (39 yards on nine rush attempts) handled the running attack while George Kittle (six receptions, 125 yards, one TD) and Pierre Garcon (four catches, 52 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Arizona has run the ball on 40.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Francisco has a rush percentage of 45.0 percent. The Cardinals have produced 66.8 rush yards per game (including 73.0 per game versus West opponents) and have two touchdowns on the ground this year. The Niners are averaging 133.5 rush yards per game (0.0 in conference) and have two total rushing TDs.

If 2018 results are any indication, then it seems like the Cardinals should have the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has given up just 52 sacks while the D-line logged 37 sacks. The 49ers, on the other hand, have given up 43 sacks and their defense has generated only 30 sacks.

The Cards offensive scheme has averaged 154.0 yards through the air overall (135.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has three passing scores so far. The Niners have produced 254.0 pass yards per outing (0 in the NFC) and have seven total pass TDs.

Defensively, Arizona should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 141.3 rush yards and 250.3 pass yards per game. The San Francisco defense has allowed 288.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 104.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Cards have given up an ANY/A of 6.86 to opposing QBs, while the Niners are yielding an ANY/A of 7.36.

Offensively, Rosen has put up 180 passing yards on the year, and has completed 15-of-27 attempts with one passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Rosen’s got a 6.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.86 over the past two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Arizona in this one. David Johnson (156 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 74 receiving yards on the year), Christian Kirk (59 receiving yards) and Ricky Seals-Jones (88 receiving yards) have all played key roles of late.

For the home team, C.J. Beathard has completed 23-of-37 passes for 298 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Beathard’s ANY/A sits at 6.26 for the year.

We expect the Niners to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to George Kittle (237 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Matt Breida (223 rush yards, one rush TD, 58 receiving yards) and Alfred Morris (100 rush yards) have been significant factors in the San Francisco offense.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick

SU Winner: 49ers, ATS Winner: 49ers, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • Arizona was getting 4 points in its previous game and the O/U going into it was 40. The under cashed and Arizona covered in the 20-17 loss to Seattle.
  • Arizona has averaged 3.26229508196721 yards per carry across its past three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
  • San Francisco has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its past two.
  • The San Francisco offense has lost one fumble this season while Arizona has lost three.
  • In its last three matches, Arizona is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • San Francisco was favored by 10 points in its last matchup and the O/U was 46.5. The over cashed and San Francisco failed to cover in the 29-27 defeat to the Chargers.
  • In its last three contests, San Francisco is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Cardinals offense has recorded zero pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the 49ers have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Arizona defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while San Francisco has given up two such plays.
  • The Arizona offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while San Francisco has created six such runs.
  • Both defenses have allowed two rushing play of 20+ yards. The Cardinals have given up 18 running plays of 10+ yards while the 49ers have given up 11 such plays.
  • The Arizona D has 10 sacks on the year while San Francisco has eight.