The Miami Heat (35-19), 5.5-point favorites, will be at State Farm Arena to square off with the Atlanta Hawks (15-41) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 231.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 20, 2020.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks ATS Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last game. The Hawks (3-point favorites) were defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers, 127-105, while the Heat (5-point underdogs) fell to the Utah Jazz, 116-101. The Atlanta game went 2.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5, while the Miami game went 0.5 points over the projected point total of 216.5.
Miami had a better turnover percentage (10.4 vs. 12.8) while Atlanta did a fantastic job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (20-25; 80.0 percent). Trae Young played a key role for Atlanta with 27 points and 12 assists. Bam Adebayo, meanwhile had a solid performance for Miami, finishing with nine points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
In their three matchups this season, the Heat have won all three. The two teams combined for 256 points in their most recent game, which was well over the projected point total of 218.5. Miami won 135-121, covering as a 9-point favorite. Miami won the rebounding battle. The Heat had nine offensive rebounds and 53 total rebounds, while the Hawks had four and 37, respectively. Adebayo put up a triple-double in the victory, with 30 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.
Heat games have a tendency to go over the O/U total (57.4 percent). Miami comes into the contest with records of 35-19 straight up (SU) and 28-24-2 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Miami, Hawks games also have a tendency to finish over the total (57.1 percent). Further, Atlanta is 15-41 SU and 25-30-1 ATS.
The Heat’s Duncan Robinson has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 17 points per game. Meanwhile, John Collins has averaged 27 points,11.4 rebounds,1.2 blocks during that same time frame for the Hawks.
It will be a showdown of contrasting paces as the up-tempo Hawks will look to push the more half-court-oriented Heat. The Hawks currently rank third in possessions per game while the Heat are 21st. Furthermore, the Heat rank fifth in effective field goal percentage (0.545), while the Hawks rank 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.541).
Heat at Hawks Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Hawks rank 15th in points off turnovers per game (16.7) while the Heat rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
- Miami ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Atlanta ranks 29th (6.3).
- The Hawks rank seventh in three pointers allowed per game (32.2) while the Heat rank 28th (37.7).
- Miami ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (11.5) while Atlanta ranks 22nd (14.4).
- Miami ranks 14th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while Atlanta ranks 28th (9.0).
- The Heat rank third in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while the Hawks rank 27th (47.0).
- The Heat rank ninth in second chance points allowed per game (12.3) while the Hawks rank 27th (14.8).
- Miami averages 25.3 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Atlanta ranks 17th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- Miami ranks sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.8) while Atlanta ranks 28th (53.9).
- Miami is 7-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Atlanta is 4-0.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Heat are 34-13 and the Hawks are 15-34.
- Atlanta is 15-10-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 12-16-1 ATS on the road.
- Of the Heat’s 29 road games, they have 15 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.
- The Hawks have 14 overs and 12 unders in 26 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Hawks are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Atlanta has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 121.0 points per game (10.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 125.8 points per game (6.9 above their season average).
- The Heat have been outscored by an average of 6.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.4 points.
