It will be a showdown between two exceptional defenses when the Boston Celtics (15-5), 3-point favorites, clash with the Denver Nuggets (14-5) at TD Garden. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 203 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 6, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last game. The Celtics (5.5-point favorites) defeated the Miami Heat 112-93, while the Nuggets (2.5-point underdog) beat the New York Knicks 129-92. The Boston game went 3.5 points under the projected point total of 208.5, while the Denver game finished 13.5 points over the projected point total of 207.5.
Denver played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.3 (above their season average of 23.6) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.684 (above their season average of 0.501). For those same stats, New York had marks of 11.4 and 0.464, respectively. The Celtics, on the other hand, made 26 of their 32 free throws (81.3 percent), while the Heat had a turnover percentage of 17.4 (above the 13.9 mark opponents have averaged against Boston this season). Kemba Walker played a pivotal role for Boston with 28 points and seven assists. Meanwhile, Mason Plumlee had a good game for Denver, finishing with 11 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.
In their first matchup this year, Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets to a 96-92 win. He recorded a triple-double with 18 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists. Denver was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 188 points, which was well under the projected point total of 207. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.9 vs. 11.9). Boston, meanwhile, did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (19-23; 82.6 percent).
Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are playing, as 14 of their 18 games have finished under the O/U total. Denver has an outstanding 14-5 straight up (SU) record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (7-9-2 against the spread (ATS)).
Celtics games also have a tendency to go under the projected point total (60.0 percent). Further, Boston is 15-5 SU and 12-7-1 ATS.
When looking at effective field goal percentage, Boston should have a noteworthy advantage. The Celtics defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.504), while the Denver offense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.510). Also, the Nuggets, who rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (23.7 percent), will try to take advantage of the Celtics, who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.3 percent).
Nuggets vs. Celtics Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank 15th in blocks per game (5.0) while the Celtics rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.8).
- Denver ranks seventh in rebounds per game (47.0) while Boston ranks 24th in rebounds allowed per game (46.9).
- The Celtics rank second in steals per game (8.8) while the Nuggets rank 12th (8.0).
- Denver ranks 16th in three pointers allowed per game (33.2) while Boston ranks 25th (36.0).
- Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while Boston ranks 10th (12.8).
- The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.5) while the Celtics rank 19th (23.6).
- The Celtics rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.8) while the Nuggets rank 10th (47.3).
- Boston allows the fewest points off turnovers per game (13.8) while Denver ranks third (14.1).
- Boston ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while Denver ranks 15th (13.3).
- Boston is 4-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Denver is 9-0.
- The Nuggets are 12-3 when they reach the century mark, while the Celtics are 14-2.
- Denver is 3-3-1 ATS on the road, while Boston is 5-3 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 5 of the Nuggets’ 7 road games, while 4 of the Celtics’ 8 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Celtics are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.0, up from 6.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.0 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.0 points per game (0.4 below their season average).
