Soccer Odds - Italian Serie A Week Genoa vs Juventus

  • Thursday, March 19th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Juventus has separated themselves from the rest of Serie A, and can practically see the finish line that will earn them their fourth consecutive Scudetto title. The champions host Genoa this weekend, highlighting two of the best goal keepers in the league. Genoa's Mattia Perin, the potential heir apparent to GiGi Buffon for the Italian National Team, will see his idol across the pitch this weekend, in our featured match of Round 28 in Serie A.

    The Parma situation brought some harsh news this past week, with the team President, Giampietro Manenti, being arrested and charged with multiple crimes that has led the club far past bankruptcy. The club has apparently been given two options towards the future. They could either find a new owner to assume control of the club while paying off their debts, or they could be demoted to the fourth division with a new identity in Serie D.

    However, they are scheduled to play this weekend as the other clubs in Serie A have contributed to help pay the players who have not seen a pay check this entire campaign. In addition, 21 other members of the Parma organization have also been charged with crimes involving money laundering, among other things.

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    There are other stories to be told about the Serie A League, about financial situations that reflect what Parma is going though, just not the similar scale of the Parma debacle, and we will be exposed to more news as the campaign winds down.

    Let's try to keep our attention to the pitch as best we can and let the legal issues work themselves out.

    We open Round 28 with our normal twoSaturdaymatches, with Palermo headed to Stadio Bentegodi in Verona to take on Chievo, who comes off a convincing 2 - 0 win over the weekend after the efforts of Alberto Paloschi's two sparkling finishes.

    The otherSaturdaymatch takes place at the San Siro, and we would not suggest attending the match. The AC Milan fans will take this place apart if Milan continues to come up with poor results, following up a 2 - 1 loss last weekend and Inzaghi still left to revel in his disappointments as manager.

    We have eight important matches forSunday and a lot to discuss, so let's get to the pitch, and see if we can't find some action along the way.

    Saturday, March 21- 2 Matches

    Palermo vs Chievo Verona

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +215 Away ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: Chievo +145 Home

    Spread: Palermo Pk+120 ; Chievo Pk -140

    Total 2: Over -125 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Alberto Paloschi lifted Chievo to victory last weekend, scoring both goals in a 2 - 0 win over Genoa. After two defensive breakdowns practically giving the chances away, Paloschi's second goal might just make our Goal of the Week honor. He snapped off a one-timer cross from Meggiorini. After Meggiorini found himself a gift giveway from the Genoa back line he sent a ball across the face of the net that Paloschi made no mistake with in finding the net.

    Palermo is suddenly going backwards, and has not scored a goal in their last three outings, with only two draws to show in their last four efforts. They are still comfortable in the middle of the table, but hopes of Europe are slowly becoming out of reach.

    It is tough to offer an Over with these two recently. Before Chievo found the two goals last weekend they, too, had been dismal on the offensive side of the ball, but this total at a straight 2 makes it tough to decide.

    Until we see any kind of consistency, the Under 2 at a reasonable +105 is the only realistic option to make.

    Cagliari vs AC Milan

    3-Way: 1: Cagliari +360 Away ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: Milan -125 Home

    Spread: Cagliari +0.5 +105 ; Milan -0.5 -125

    Total 2.5: Over -130 ; Under +110

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    If Inzaghi has yet to lose his job, especially after blowing a 1 - 0 lead last weekend only to lose 2 - 1, then there will be no change made at this point. Bringing in another manager now could actually hurt the future of the club, by handing off a club in such disarray.

    So assuming they will just let him finish out the year before they move on, we can assume nothing will change and this club will just do their best to keep the 10-point lead on the clubs in the relegation zone and manage to stay in Serie A.

    This Over is juiced at -130, because we have seen time and again that AC Milan is simply disinterested in putting a massive effort defending the ball. Even with a 1 - 0 lead last week, the two goals they gave up would never have happened to an even semi-decent football team. Plus, we know Cagliari has not exactly been a defensive juggernaut this campaign either.

    It is steep for our tastes, but we will see these three goals somehow to cash the ticket, so the Over 2.5 goes in the books as a suggestion here.

    Sunday, March 22- 8 Matches

    Featured Match Genoa vs Juventus

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Genoa +1100

    Juventus -400

    Draw +510


    Genoa +1.5 +105

    Juventus -1.5 -125

    Total 2.5:

    Over -135

    Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We have discussed Mattia Perin plenty throughout the campaign, and we know he is the hopeful heir apparent to Buffon when the premier goalkeeper decides to hang up the gloves. Until then, only one of them has a defense in front of them that is close to world class, because the Genoa defense once again showed us last week that they do not have things together.

    Juventus played an all-important Champions League match this week, rolling out a resounding 3 - 0 win, to take their act to the quarterfinals of that event, and now look to put a stamp on the domestic campaign. Juventus is 14 points clear of Roma with only 10 matches remaining this year, and we know Roma is not catching anyone with the way they are playing. It will be up to Lazio or Napoli to hope to catch them at this point, and it would also take a complete meltdown on their own end. Let's go on that limb and say no one is catching Juventus.

    Now we have to wonder how bad Genoa will look this weekend, because if any club will make you pay for a lousy defensive effort, Juventus can certainly do it.

    The handicap of -1.5 at -125 on Juve is the most realistic option on this board, for both expectation, and prices offered on the other lines we see.

    AS Roma vs Cesena

    3-Way: 1: Roma -155 Away ; X: +285 Draw ; 2: Cesena +575 Home

    Spread: Roma -1 +115 ; Cesena +1 -135

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Miserable, and it finally has gotten worse than the repetitive draws Roma has only managed lately.

    It is no mystery that Francesco Totti is playing for 60 minutes, and it doesn't matter what the score is either way. He will, and has, come out even earlier than that on many occasions, and his presence means nothing at this point.

    Clubs now know that they need to focus on Gervinho making runs, and blocking shots from Pjanic and Nianngolin, because they are the only threats Roma has. We already saw Cesena give Juventus a run for their money a few weeks ago, while finding draws with both Inter Milan and Palermo, with a win over Udinese in the mix. So, for a club at the bottom of the table as Cesena is, they certainly are not being pushed over week in and week out.

    We are so far from convinced that Roma can beat anyone by two goals, so the +1 on Cesena at home goes on the board at -135, being right at the cutoff point as far as juice goes.

    Sassuolo vs Empoli

    3-Way: 1: Sassuolo +260 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Empoli +115 Home

    Spread: Sassuolo +0.5 -135 ; Empoli -0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Only two points separate these two in the table, and Empoli can't seem to gain any ground in the table, because they have 15 draws through 27 matches. That is actually a pretty amazing a stat, but one point a week will certainly not get anything done, and they sit on 30 points in 15th place as a result.

    Sassuolo beat up on Parma last weekend, ending their own long drought without winning a match, but beating Parma doesn't exactly mean you are out of the woods. Basically, it is because the price is +115 that we will hope to sneak in this Over 2.5, even though the line setters see it the other way.

    Torino vs Parma

    3-Way: 1: Torino -105 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Parma +335 Home

    Spread: Torino -0.5 -105 ; Parma +0.5 -115

    Total 2: Over -140 ; Under +120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Regardless of the ownership being removed in handcuffs, it looks like Parma will be allowed to finish out the campaign, but to what end? Players have still yet to be paid, although we are hearing that the other clubs have pitched in a little over £3.5M to relieve some of the pressure.

    Torino went from being the hottest club in Serie A, to reverting back to the club they were when the campaign started. Now losers of two straight matches, hopes for Europe dwindle as the weeks pass. They are stable in the middle of the table, so it is just a matter of finishing out the year.

    Even though Sassuolo destroyed this Parma club last week, Torino is still with an aging front line, who have at least salvaged the year.There is too much going on for Parma here, and we will simply suggest Torino and the 3-Way line of -105 to find a way to get through this one.

    Hellas Verona vs Lazio

    3-Way: 1: Verona +730 Away ; X: +350 Draw ; 2: Lazio -230 Home

    Spread: Verona +1 +120 ; Lazio -1 -140

    Total 3: Over +115 ; Under -135

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Luca Toni continues to defy his age, and found the net twice last weekend to hold of Napoli in a 2 - 0 win.

    Now they have to hope he can carry them again against Lazio in Rome, who have been playing their best football at the moment.

    This total listed as a straight 3 is peculiar, knowing that Lazio is usually pretty stingy at home, and we do not expect to see 4 or more that would be needed to cash the ticket on an Over play. We will go with this Under 3 in this spot, even if the juice is not exactly pleasing at -135.

    Atalanta vs Napoli

    3-Way: 1: Atalanta +690 Away ; X: +350 Draw ; 2: Napoli -225 Home

    Spread: Atalanta +1 +115 ; Napoli -1 -135

    Total 2.5: Over -125 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We all know Atalanta simply can't score, and all of a sudden Napoli is also having their own issues finding the net after the great run they had to get themselves where they are today. They have been overtaken by Lazio for that third spot in the table that carries Champions League ramifications, so if they plan on keeping pace, they had best use home field this weekend to their advantage. The line setters see it clearly as a home win, with -225 offered on Napoli, but of course that is well out of our range for action.

    With both clubs going through their scoring problems right now, we are surprised to see the +105 on the Under 2.5 here, so we will hope that is our best option from these lines offered.

    Inter Milan vs Sampdoria

    3-Way: 1: Inter +160 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Sampdoria +185 Home

    Spread: Inter Pk -120 ; Sampdoria Pk +100

    Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    With Roma losing at Olimpico last weekend, that leaves Juventus and Sampdoria as the last two clubs yet to lose at home this campaign.

    Let's not overanalyze this one, and until someone shows us they can take 3 points from Sampdoria in Genoa, that Pk at even money on the home seems fair enough. As long as they draw, we are getting our money back, so the Draw no Bet option makes plenty of sense.

    Fiorentina vs Udinese

    3-Way: 1: Fiorentina +130 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Udinese +230 Home

    Spread: Fiorentina Pk -150 ; Udinese Pk +130

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Fiorentina and Sampdoria seem to have a battle on their hands for the Europa League qualification spots. The Viola kept AC Milan reeling last weekend after going down a goal, only to watch Milan fall apart and let Fiorentina steal all three points.

    Udinese has to simply finish the campaign and stay in the league, because they are not catching anyone near the top of the table. They should be able to just stay afloat and try it again next year.

    Even though Udinese finds ways to play better at home, we don't expect Fiorentina to leave anything here to wonder about, and they know that these 3 points are considered necessary.

    The +130 on Fiorentina here is lovely, and we expect them to keep pace with the clubs battling for Europe.

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