Soccer Odds - Italian Serie A Week 36 Lazio vs Sampdoria

  • Thursday, May 14th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: As the campaign winds down, Juventus has their fourth straight Scudetto in hand, but there are seven clubs vying for the five other European positions in the table. One of those matches takes place in Genoa, with Sampdoria hosting Lazio. This makes our featured match of the weekend in Serie A a big one.

    Lazio and Roma are only separated by a single point with second place on the line, and the difference between second and third in the table is a group stage entry to Champions League.Sampdoria clings to the 6th position in the table by a point over fellow Genoans, I Rossoblu, with Inter Milan also in the chase just two points back as well.

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Inter Milan will be one part of the twoSaturdaymatches that gets the round started, with a home game against Juventus, who not only have the Italian title in hand, but also earned their way into the Champions League finalthis Wednesday.

    Six matches are on the schedule forSunday, which is highlighted by AS Roma at home against Udinese. Roma comes off a weekend loss to AC Milan, and continues to struggle with getting results against lesser clubs in the table.

    The round comes to a closeon Monday, with two meaningful matches for clubs in the European discussion. Napoli hosts Cesena, and Fiorentina hosts Parma, with Napoli and Fiorentina needing results to maintain their positions in the table in hopes of club competition next year.

    Let's get into what we can expect on the Italian pitch this weekend, and give some ideas for some action around the league.

    Saturday, May 16- 2 Matches

    Featured Match Lazio vs Sampdoria

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Lazio +140

    Sampdoria +205

    Draw +235


    Lazio Pk -140

    Sampdoria Pk +120

    Total 2.5:

    Over -125

    Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Lazio found out just how hungry Inter Milan is to get in the European discussion by losing 2 - 1 at Stadio Olimpico, squandering a chance to pass Roma who also suffered defeat last weekend. Luckily for Lazio, the separation is only a point for the two spot that earns Champions League group stage entry with three matches to go in the campaign. The third position will also gain entry to Champions League, but it would be the qualification stage, not group stage.

    Juventus handed Sampdoria their first home loss of the campaign last time they were here in Genoa, but rebounded nicely last weekend in a 4 - 1 win over Udinese.

    This might be the first feature match of the campaign where we suggest a draw, because Lazio on the road is always a scary proposition, and Sampdoria plays so well at home. With all the pressure these two are facing to get results, this +235 line on each coming away with a point is the place we see the value.

    Juventus vs Inter Milan

    3-Way: 1: Juventus +175 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Inter +165 Home

    Spread: Juventus Pk -105 ; Inter Pk -115

    Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Juventus now has a chance for a triple, after taking out Madrid in the Champions League semifinalsthis Wednesday, and having the Coppa Italia final on deck as well. The Coppa match will likely be moved, as it is slated forJune 7, with the CL final scheduled forJune 6. There is no reason to risk injuries, but there is still close to a month before the Italian Cup and Champions League finals.

    Inter showed us all how badly they want to be back in European club competition next season, finding a huge 2 - 1 win last weekend against Lazio in Rome to pull within two points of the six spot held by Sampdoria.

    This is likely to be a high-scoring affair, as Pogba will likely play for Juventus to continue to get back in form from missing time. Inter also needs to go out and continue to get results to stay in contention for Europe.

    We see a 2 - 1 match here, so the Over 2.5 at -105 goes on the board in this one.

    Sunday, May 17- 6 Matches

    Genoa vs Atalanta

    3-Way: 1: Genoa +195 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Atalanta +150 Home

    Spread: Genoa Pk +105 ; Atalanta Pk -125

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    With three wins in their last four outings, Genoa has now also pulled themselves into the European discussion again, only a single point behind Sampdoria for Europa League entry. Not ironically, the return of Mattia Perin in net for Genoa has given this club a greater confidence, and the offense followed suit.Genoa put up five goals last weekend against Torino, as well as three goals against Cesena and AC Milan in the three wins of late.

    Atalanta hasn't been playing too shabby lately either, with only one loss in their last 10 matches, although 7 of those are draws.

    We would have never offered this play early in the year, but if you look at the now and not the past, you see Atalanta scoring in their last eight games, while scoring two or more four times in that mix.

    So the Over 2.5 is going on the board here as the play, with only $15 worth of juice attached to it.

    Palermo vs Cagliari

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +260 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Cagliari +105 Home

    Spread: Palermo +0.5 -125 ; Cagliari -0.5 +105

    Total 3: Over +110; Under -130

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We have discussed the road issues for Palermo plenty around here, with only 13 of their 43 points in the table coming away from Renzo Barbera.

    Mathematically Cagliari might have some kind of miracle chance to escape relegation, but making up eight points with nine available to everyone, we will call that the season is 'unofficially over' for the Sardinian side, if you will.

    The line setters are giving away their thoughts on this total, as a straight 3 on the Over at +110 is so damn tempting. Then, you think to yourself, we would need to see four goals to cash the ticket, but a 2 - 1 match would at worst give me money back on the push.

    That spells a bit of value at +110, so we will hope to see at worst that 2 - 1 scoreline, that essentially puts our money back in our pocket with three goals anyway. Over is the play.

    Chievo Verona vs Torino

    3-Way: 1: Chievo +450 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Torino -140 Home

    Spread: Chievo +0.5 +120 ; Torino -0.5 -140

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Torino is in the twilight zone, only because they actually still hold some kind of hope for Europe, albeit a long shot. Losing their last two and getting kicked around for five goals against Genoa last weekend doesn't give them the impression that Europe is as close as it is, because that was disgusting.

    Now Chievo comes calling, and this club has not exactly fared well against Torino, with only one win in the last 11 meetings, that happened all the way back in 2007.

    Chievo has been playing their best football of the campaign right now, with only one loss in their last 11 games, while coming off a 2 - 2 derby with fellow Veronians last weekend.

    Even though we saw a 0 - 0 in the first meeting, where we predicted the Over and missed it obviously, we will go back to the well with a lucky coin to throw in to hope we see that all turn around, as these two are not even close to the same clubs they were in January. The Over 2.5 at even money goes in the books for this match.

    Empoli vs Hellas Verona

    3-Way: 1: Empoli +190 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Verona +145 Home

    Spread: Empoli Pk +105 ; Verona Pk -125

    Total 3: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Empoli and Verona both have 41 points. Okay then, so that will wrap up this campaign for these two.

    Nothing to gain but a spot, or maybe three positions in the table that come with nothing at all.

    So, with two clubs looking to next year already, what can we expect is the question we need to answer.

    The draw could have some value, but it seems too obvious almost with the lines we see on the 3-Way action home and away. We will go on a bit of limb and take the Over 3, hoping it is that high for a reason.

    AC Milan vs Sassuolo

    3-Way: 1: Milan +130 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Sassuolo +215 Home

    Spread: Milan Pk -145 ; Sassuolo Pk +125

    Total 2.5: Over -125 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    AC Milan put quite a damper in Roma's hopes to stay in second place, but Lazio failed to get by Inter Milan, giving both Rome sides losses last weekend.

    Just when we all started to accept that Milan had given up after three straight losses, they turn around and put up that type of result last weekend, making us all wonder more about next season.

    Who is playing to stay, and who is playing to leave, are the biggest questions in Milan right now, and Sassuolo has the same questions, finishing a campaign they barely managed to stay alive in this year. This should be another decent opportunity to chase some goal scoring, because the season is essentially over for the most part. We are not about to start to talk about 9 points available for everyone, and Milan being 8 points back of Europa, because that would take up wasted space, so forget you saw that.

    We are officially suggesting the Over 2.5 at a marginal -125, but if you move it up to either the handicap 2.5 and 3, or the straight 3, no one around here will blame you.

    Udinese vs Roma

    3-Way: 1: Udinese +1025 Away ; X: +435 Draw ; 2: Roma -330 Home

    Spread: Udinese +1.5 +100 ; Roma -1.5 -120

    Total 3: Over -110 ; Under -110

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Roma is looking to sweep Udinese in the season series for the second straight campaign, and they certainly need it, as you know by now from all that has been said in the piece so far. The line setters see it rather clearly, revealing how they see this outcome slapping a -120 on the -1.5, no less. These are games Roma hasn't won by two goals most of the campaign, and it is why they are barely holding on to the second spot in the table. They have settled for draws all too often as we know, and Udinese is not likely to be kept off the board either.

    We are taking this Over 3, expecting no less than a 2 - 1 type of Roma win here, not trusting that handicap line, but yet taking advantage of some action with a -110 on the board.

    Monday, May 18- 2 Matches

    Parma vs Fiorentina

    3-Way: 1: Parma +1225 Away ; X: +620 Draw ; 2: Fiorentina -475 Home

    Spread: Parma +2 -110 ; Fiorentina -2 -110

    Total 3.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    It's a strange game isn't it? Parma was humiliated by lowly Cagliari, and bounced back last weekend with a 2 - 2 against Napoli, who are fighting for European positioning week by week. Now we will see how Fiorentina follows up two straight wins, although they did lose 3 - 0 to Sevilla in Europa League last week, and will be playing the home legthis Thursday.

    We will obviously not know that result before this match kicks off, but we are taking one last play on Parma to cover something.We have taken advantage of it a handful of times lately, and hopefully the +2 will see them put up a fight against a club who is battling for something again.

    Cesena vs Napoli

    3-Way: 1: Cesena +1550 Away ; X: +710 Draw ; 2: Napoli -600 Home

    Spread: Cesena +2.5 -135 ; Napoli -2.5 +115

    Total 3.5: Over -110 ; Under -110

    Bet on the Serie A at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    As we just said, Napoli failed to get by Parma last weekend, and settling for one point instead of three against Parma at this point of the campaign, is mind blowing. We wonder if the Napoli president decided to kick the door down again as he did after their Italian Cup exit, although we cannot confirm it.

    Cesena is done and headed right back to second tier Serie B next campaign and it doesn't matter what they do at all, so how does Napoli deal with a second straight match against a club that is being demoted?

    We will give two tips here, as we expect Napoli to come out of their tie with Dnipro in Europa Leagueon Thursday, and follow it up with an impressive performance against Cesena.

    Take the Over 3.5, expecting Napoli to score three of those, with a Cesena goal in the net to make it four. That means you cashed that-110 ticket to close out the round.

    View the latest Serie A Soccer Betting Odds @ Diamond Sportsbook