Soccer Odds - Italian Serie A Week 24 Fixtures Featuring Genoa vs Sampdoria

  • Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: It was a strange weekend of results all around Italy last weekend, with all three clubs who are at the top of the table -- Juventus, Roma, and Napoli -- all looking bad in matches they were expected to win.

    The Roma and Juve results were the two shockers, with Roma not able to score a single goal against Parma, and Juventus relinquishing a 2 - 1 lead, to settle for a draw at Cesena. This weekend, we feature the Genoa Derby, with Genoa and Sampdoria facing off at Stadio Ferraris.

    Both clubs have been heading in different directions lately, with Sampdoria not getting the results they did all through the first half of the campaign. Genoa has ridden the goal keeping of Mattia Perin, and have suddenly found success up front, coming off a 5-goal barrage last weekend vs Verona.

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    We are seeing AC Milan fans screaming for Inzaghi to be released after another disappointing result with Empoli over the weekend, and we now have to question what the Milan players plan to do to help him keep his job.

    Let's get in to what we can expect around the league this weekend, and suggest some action along the way.

    Friday, February 20- 1 Match

    Atalanta vs Juventus

    3-Way: 1: Atalanta +1500 Away ; X: +600 Draw ; 2: Juventus -500 Home

    Spread: Atalanta +1.5 +135 ; Juventus -1.5 -135

    Total 3: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    This match was moved back as a result of the Champions League match that Juventus will be playing on the 24th, giving them ample time to rest between fixtures.

    Juventus comes off, arguably, one of the most exciting matches of last weekend, at least to the fans of Serie A as a whole. A 2 - 2 draw may not seem like a good result for Juve fans, but the Cesena fans will argue that a result like that against the best club in Italy was more than acceptable.

    However, the refereeing in that match was disgusting, and it came to a head when a penalty kick was given to Juventus late in the match. Vidal missed the goal completely to the keeper's right post, and the Cesena manager was sent off for losing his mind after the PK was given.

    There are no real favorable lines here, except for the Over 3 at +105. If we finally see one referee call the fouls on the dozens of times the Juventus defenders grab and pull jerseys, we should see 3 goals here at worst from set pieces and free kicks around the box. The league will surely be going over the amount of cheap fouls they get away with, game in and game out, and hopefully we will see a few more calls coming this weekend.

    Atalanta got torched for 4 goals over the weekend, and even though we don't expect them to have much scoring success, we suspect they will at least find one goal to get us to 2 - 1 and, at worst, push our action.

    Saturday, February 21- 1 Matches

    Featured Match Genoa vs Sampdoria

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Genoa +215

    Sampdoria +140

    Draw +225


    Genoa Pk +120

    Sampdoria Pk -140

    Total 2.5:

    Over +120

    Under -140

    Analysis and Prediction:

    The Genoa Derby! Both clubs call Stadio Ferraris home, and boy were we surprised to see Sampdoria favored here.

    Sampdoria has been a story of two seasons so far, with a tremendous first half of the year, and a horrible second half of the campaign. They have not won a match since the 2 - 0 result with Parma 5 matches ago, and they come off an absolutely disgusting result with Chievo last weekend, losing 2 - 1 while it took them 91 minutes to even find that goal.

    We know that Genoa relies on Perin in net, and we have discussed him time and again around here. Even though the Genoa defense is not exactly sound, we still see this +120 line on Genoa to come out of here with some type of result, as a value play.Even if this is a 1 - 1, 2 - 2 draw type of match, it will not hurt us in the least, and hopefully Genoa can find the final tally of the match to get 3 points, and cash our tickets outright.

    Sunday, February 22- 6 Matches

    Cesena vs AC Milan

    3-Way: 1: Cesena +800 Away ; X: +345 Draw ; 2: Milan -240 Home

    Spread: Cesena +1 +125 ; Milan -1 -145

    Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Cesena now gets to follow up that tremendous match with Juve with a trip to the San Siro to take on Milan. Even though they are still in a relegation battle, and have only given up 2 less goals than Parma this campaign, we know Milan has no leadership, no confidence, and absolutely no one coming to defend Inzaghi. The Milan fans have been screaming to see him removed, and we have been talking about it for weeks, if not months, around here as well.

    However, we are taking this Over 2.5 at -105, due to the fact that Cesena will have to try to reproduce the feeling of last weekend vs Juve, and Milan should have success finding the net. Unless the players, too, have decided to not give their all so Inzaghi finally gets canned. We will also throw in the +1 on Cesena just in case Milan does decide to not give an effort for their manager.

    Chievo Verona vs Empoli

    3-Way: 1: Chievo +335 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Empoli -105 Home

    Spread: Chievo +0.5 -115 ; Empoli -0.5 -105

    Total 2: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Palermo vs Lazio

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +550 Away ; X: +285 Draw ; 2: Lazio -170 Home

    Spread: Palermo +1 -125 ; Lazio -1 +105

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, did Palermo look in sync last weekend or what? What a match that was against Napoli, with a 3 - 1 result, despite only having the ball for 1/3 of the possession time. That is what we call making most of the opportunities you get, and they did that and then some. Napoli has been, arguably, the hottest team in Italy lately, and if you watched that match you saw that Palermo made it look relatively easy.

    We know scoring in Rome against either Lazio or Roma is never an easy thing, but we are still going to suggest this Over 2.5 at -115. This match should actually be a bit wide open, and we expect to see a 2 - 1 result to cash the ticket.

    Udinese vs Parma

    3-Way: 1: Udinese +155 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Parma +190 Home

    Spread: Udinese Pk -125 ; Parma Pk -105

    Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Parma put 11 guys behind the ball in their match with Roma over the weekend, and it was enough to see them take a point from a 0 - 0 draw. Roma's struggles are a whole different story, and we will get to that later, but we all know Parma is the worst club in not only Italy, but maybe even Europe's major leagues altogether.

    The problem here is Udinese absolutely stinks when they leave home, and we have discussed that plenty all season as well.

    This could easily be another 0 - 0 match, despite Parma giving up more goals than anyone in the league, at 47.

    Move the Total to Under 2 and 2.5 with the handicap, and get a much better price than the -145 on the straight 2.5.

    AS Roma vs Hellas Verona

    3-Way: 1: Roma -140 Away ; X: +275 Draw ; 2: Verona +425 Home

    Spread: Roma -0.5 -140 ; Verona +0.5 +120

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Ridiculous! We put this Under 2.5 on the board the second the lines came out, because Roma couldn't score if the other side of the pitch was completely empty.

    We have no idea how Rudi Garcia pulls out his experienced players in a 0 - 0 match with the worst team in Serie A, Parma, to put in two 18-year-olds and a 20-year-old as the 3 subs. Granted, Danieli Verde was tremendous, however, showing mega composure at 18. His passes were crisp, and it almost led to a goal, but naturally Alex Cole couldn't convert a header which hit the post and stayed out of the net. He is another story of how Roma wasted their effort and money to bring over from England, but we will deal with that some other day.

    We trust no one here to do anything, and -120 is nothing to ask for another disgusting showing from Roma and an under that comes with it.

    Torino vs Fiorentina

    3-Way: 1: Torino +375 Away ; X: +255 Draw ; 2: Fiorentina -120 Home

    Spread: Torino +0.5 +100 ; Fiorentina -0.5 -120

    Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    That was a weird match with Torino and Cagliari last weekend. No success for anyone except for 2 minutes of the match, when Cagliari scored in the 34th minute, and Torino answered in the 35th minute.

    Both of these clubs have been getting results lately, and we were pleasantly surprised to see + money on this Over 2.5, and we see a perfect line on the Both to Score prop at -115 either way. We say the Over is the way to go here, and +110 is a value line worth chasing.

    Monday, February 23- 2 Matches

    Sassuolo vs Napoli

    3-Way: 1: Sassuolo +550 Away ; X: +325 Draw ; 2: Napoli -185 Home

    Spread: Sassuolo +1 -110 ; Napoli -1 -110

    Total 2.5: Over -145 ; Under +125

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Why would anyone pay -145 to see 3 goals here, when you can simply move the line to 2.5 and 3, if not a straight 3 at even more value? We saw Napoli control the ball for 67 percent of the time against Palermo last weekend, and they still gave up 3 goals. Now throw in that Sassuolo is in town, who has given up 22 goals in 12 away matches this year. Much less, when you look at Sassuolo's results this year, both teams score like clockwork, and we see 3 - 2 every weekend it seems. We will let you decide on the Over 2.5 and 3 Handicap, or the straight 3 on its own, because these two are going to have a carnivalon Monday!

    Inter Milan vs Cagliari

    3-Way: 1: Inter +125 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Cagliari +235 Home

    Spread: Inter -0.5 +125 ; Cagliari +0.5 -145

    Total 2.5: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We have a similar story here, and do you remember when we said, "We are giving Inter one more chance to pay us on the Over," about a month ago? They have paid the Over every match since then. We know Cagliari has a ton of issues on defense, and Inter Milan is flying around finding the net lately, so there is no way we can leave this Over 2.5 at +105 off the board. Just feed us again thank you, and hopefully we have two overs come in with the twoMondaymatches on the schedule.

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