Soccer Odds - Italian Serie A Week 16 Fixtures Featuring AC Milan vs AS Roma

  • Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Our weekend officially starts on aThursday, which is rare for Serie A. All clubs then haveFridayoff, and the schedule fills out with twoSaturdaymatches and the bulk of the slateon Sunday. Juventus is featured in one of theThursdaymatches, and they have reverted right back to the club we used to know early in the campaign.

    Low-scoring matches and the inability to find the net has the Zebras staring at two straight draws, letting Roma stay within reach at the top of the table.

    Our featured match is at Stadio Olimpico with AC Milan, looking to break into the top 5 of the table, taking on Roma, who is looking to keep Juventus in sight, only a point back of the Serie A leaders.

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    There are 6 big matches forSundayas well, so let's break it all down, and see what action we can find on the Italian pitch this final weekend before the holiday break.

    Thursday, December 18- 2 Matches

    Juventus vs Cagliari

    3-Way: 1: Juventus -235 Away ; X: +340 Draw ; 2: Cagliari +785 Home

    Spread: Juventus -1 -145 ; Cagliari +1 +125

    Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Juventus has let Roma stay within yelling distance, and now only has a 1 point lead at the top of the table. GiGi Buffon and the Vecchia Signora back line makes this the best defensive club in the league, having only surrendered 6 goals through 15 fixtures.

    Cagliari finds themselves at the base of the relegation zone, and now needs a result against the top club in Serie A to avoid heading to the break with an 8-match winless streak. Cagliari’s problem is that they cannot stop a soul this campaign, unless you are Parma of course, and they come off a 0 - 0 result last weekend.

    Last we checked, Juventus is not Parma, and Juventus is going to throw Cagilari in total discombobulation with a 4 - 0 result. Take the Over and the Juve handicap, but buy up the -1 to -1 and 1.5 closer to even money, and the Over to 2.5 and 3 for a similar payout.

    Parma vs Napoli

    3-Way: 1: Parma +925 Away ; X: +425 Draw ; 2: Napoli -305 Home

    Spread: Parma +1.5 -115 ; Napoli -1.5 -105

    Total 3: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    So much was made last year of how Parma found a way to play so well with a limited payroll, but this year has been a nightmare to say the least. Six points through 15 matches is just not going to keep you in Serie A.

    Napoli finally had its points streak broken with a 2 - 0 loss to Milan over the weekend and, more often than not, when a team has a long points streak snapped, that next match after the streak comes to an end is the hardest match of the year. Luckily for Napoli, they face Parma to get back in winning form, and there is only one play with any value here. Handicap -1.5 on Napoli to keep Parma reeling.

    Saturday, December 20- 2 Matches

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    Featured Match AC Milan vs AS Roma

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Milan +370

    Roma -130

    Draw +280


    Milan +0.5 +110

    Roma -0.5 -130

    Total 2.5:

    Over -120

    Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    AC Milan is not seeing Roma as an overwhelming favorite here, and yet we see a +370 on Milan for some reason.

    At home Roma has been outrageous, scoring 20 and only allowing 4, but two of those came last time we were here when Sassuolo jumped out to a 2 - 0 lead and were up a man. Roma needed to make a comeback to even get a point with a 2 - 2 Draw, and somehow did exactly that on the strength of two Ljajic tallies.

    Milan comes off the snapping of Napoli's points streak in a big 2 - 0 win at home, and now sit just outside the 5th spot in the table, tied with Napoli on 24 points. Milan and Roma will both score here, and the line setters in Europe agree with that, putting the Both to Score prop bet at -145. Let's see if we can get a 2 - 1 match here, and take this Over 2.5 at a marginal -120.

    Cesena vs Sassuolo

    3-Way: 1: Cesena +625 Away ; X: +295 Draw ; 2: Sassuolo -185 Home

    Spread: Cesena +1 -110 ; Sassuolo -1 -110

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We all can see that Sassuolo is playing like a club possessed lately, and now they get to take on a Cesena club who has come to Serie A from second tier and, simply put, has not figured out how to stay in top flight football.

    However, the lines are ugly, as -185 is just not acceptable for the serious bettor looking for action, and the -1 sitting at -110 might not even be worth the $10 juice to hope Sassuolo can win by 2 to cash the ticket outright. Sassuolo gets their suspended players back this weekend, and it should provide plenty of offense for us to cash the Over 2.5 at even money.

    Sunday, December 21- 6 Matches

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    Chievo Verona vs Hellas Verona

    3-Way: 1: Chievo +235 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Hellas +130 Home

    Spread: Chievo Pk +135 ; Hellas Pk -155

    Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Another Italian derby, with two clubs from Verona playing a very disappointing campaign to this point. Hellas Verona at least had their expectations coming in to the year set much higher than 13th place in the table as the break approached.

    Chievo is another club looking to figure out how to stay in Serie A, but if you break down their recent results, they have played well of late. A nice win over Cagliari, a draw with Lazio and Udinese, and another win over Cesena has the Flying Donkeys getting some results in the last month.

    We can't assume a draw here, and the price is fair enough to expect Hellas Verona to get 3 points, so +130 on the Mastini's 3-Way line it is.

    Palermo vs Atalanta

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +235 Away ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: Atalanta +135 Home

    Spread: Palermo Pk +135 ; Atalanta Pk -155

    Total 2: Over -145 ; Under +125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Atalanta has been trying to figure out ways to score all campaign, but at home they usually have success finding the net. They may have only 6 home goals in 7 matches, but they have only scored 8 goals all year, so this is where they have a little more confidence.

    Palermo found its way back to Serie A on the strength of its defense, and has been getting results left and right lately.

    I will gladly take the Palermo Pk at +135, in part because I will not pay $45 for the Over 2, expecting at worst a 1 - 1 match here however. Just in case Palermo grabs that second goal, the Pk Draw no Bet scenario works for us.

    Empoli vs Fiorentina

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    3-Way: 1: Empoli +625 Away ; X: +310 Draw ; 2: Fiorentina -190 Home

    Spread: Empoli +1 -110 ; Fiorentina -1 -110

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Empoli is doing a find enough job getting results lately, but it has not been enough to really make a solid ascent up the table. They still find themselves in the 14th spot with only 16 points through 15 matches, so they will need to start turning some of these Draws into Wins.

    As we head to the break, Fiorentina is the club turning some of those Draws into Wins, and could potentially catapult into a European spot and sneak into the top 5.

    This match has a 1 - 1 feel to it, as both clubs are playing well and neither is going to give up much to the other, so the Under and a potential draw play could be the way to go here.

    Udinese vs Sampdoria

    3-Way: 1: Udinese +385 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Sampdoria -115 Home

    Spread: Udinese +0.5 -105 ; Sampdoria -0.5 -115

    Total 2: Over -145 ; Under +125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    How many times have we said it – away from home Udinese is the scariest thing in Italy. It simply is not the same club with the away jersey on, and to see a -115 on Sampdoria at home here is enough value for me to expect them to take all 3 points. Sampdoria 3-Way will have to do here.

    Genoa vs Torino

    3-Way: 1: Genoa +285 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Torino +110 Home

    Spread: Genoa +0.5 -130 ; Torino -0.5 +110

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Goals? What goals? This is a 0 - 0 match, and if we see 1, we might see a second in a 1 - 1 match, but that is as good as this one will get. The Under will be the play, even at a straight 2 at +115, expecting them both to do nothing all evening long.

    Lazio vs Inter Milan

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    3-Way: 1: Lazio +280 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Inter Milan +110 Home

    Spread: Lazio +0.5 -130 ; Inter Milan -0.5 +110

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Lazio is another one of those clubs that can be quite scary away from home. Inter Milan found 3 big points over the weekend, and now needs to try to build on it, because they could be headed to their third manager of the campaign if they don't start picking up the pace.

    Let's roll with this total and expect a 2 - 1 match, which will pay our Over 2.5 ticket at +100.

    Also, we at Diamond Sportsbook would like to wish you and your family a safe and happy holiday. Buon natale and Felice anno nuovo to all of our readers!

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