Soccer Odds - Italian Serie A Week 10 Fixtures Featuring AS Roma vs Napoli at Stadio San Paolo Nov 1

  • Friday, October 31th, 2014

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: The Italian pitch has been busy the last 2 weekends, with all 20 clubs playing 3 matches in a 10-day span. The weekend kicks off with Roma vs Napoli. Roma is coming off a huge 2 - 0 win and are now tied atop the table with Juventus, who took a 1 - 0 loss to Genoa in the mid-week matches. Juve and Roma now hold identical 7 - 1 - 1 records and also have a common 16 / 4 GF - GA ratio.

    Juventus will playon Saturdaywhen they head to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli looking to rebound from the Genoa loss. Juve and Roma also have mid-week Champions League matches, so they have both been busy the past few weeks.

    AC Milan and Sampdoria are the other 2 clubs with only 1 loss on the campaign, and they haveSundaymatches: Milan hosting Palermo and Sampdoria hosting Fiorentina.

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    Saturday, November 1 - 3 Matches

    Featured Match AS Roma vs Napoli

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Roma +200 Napoli +130 Draw +230


    Roma Pk +120

    Napoli Pk -130

    Total : Over 2.5 -110 Under 2.5 -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Not only is this both team's 3rd match in a span of two weekends, but they both have mid-week matches in Champions and Europa League.

    Roma got back on track with a nice 2 - 0 win over Cesenaon Wednesday, and they did it without Francesco Totti, who always seems to need more rest than anyone else. Hopefully, it is not one of those stretches where he happens to miss a month with some mysterious injury when most people miss one match at best. He is infamous for finding a way to take a month off out of nowhere.

    Napoli looked to be on track with a 6 goal performance vs Verona over the weekend, and then barely found a draw with Atalanta mid-week, so they are still a club we are all having trouble trying to figure out. They have not lost any of their last 6 matches however, so they are at least getting results, but what can we expect in Naples?

    For what it is worth, the Home team has won the last 6 meetings, Including the Coppa Italia for what that is worth. We can assume Roma is looking forward to facing Bayern again after the 7 - 1 embarrassment in their last meeting.

    I expect a low-scoring first half, the likes of 1 - 0 or so, but somehow this second half will open up as both clubs certainly need these points. Rome needs them to keep pace with Juve atop the table and Napoli needs them to not fall further past the 7th position in the table. I will take this Over 2.5 expecting that second half to be how we hit it.

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    Juventus vs Empoli

    3-Way: 1: Juventus -230 Away ; X: +330 Draw 2 Empoli +750 Home

    Spread: Juventus -1 -130 Empoli +1 +120

    Total 2.5: Over -110 Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Usually it is Juventus who wins 1 - 0 with some late miracle that should have never happened, but the tables were turned in their mid-week match against Genoa. We easily cashed our play on that Under though, so that's all that matters.

    Empoli took a 1 - 0 lead over Sassuolo mid-week and then the wheels fell off and Sassuolo scored the next 3 to take all the points available.

    I am not the biggest fan of taking Juventus Overs because they can always put up shots, but can never find the net. Paul Pogba is trying to do so much more than he is capable of and it is making it difficult for Tevez and company to do their jobs. I expect Juve to get back on track vs Empoli and score early and often, as they also have a Champions League match on deck during the week.

    I will take this Over 2.5, but I will do it with kid gloves and play it smaller than average.

    Inter Milan vs Parma

    3-Way: 1: Inter +130 Away ; X: +230 Draw 2: Parma +220 Home

    Spread: Inter Pk -160 Parma Pk +150

    Total 2.5: Over +110 Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Parma should just quit now and take a short bus to Serie B, because this is just stupid. They were lucky to lose only 1 - 0 to Torino, but we know Torino is not exactly offensively sound either. So because Inter is on the road, they put a beautiful +130 on the board for us? How does the man with the gavel say it? SOLD! Inter at a lovely +130 3-Way it is!

    Sunday, November 2 - 5 Matches

    Sassuolo vs Chievo Verona

    3-Way: 1: Sassuolo +190 Away ; X: +220 Draw 2: Chievo +140 Home

    Spread: Sassuolo Pk +130 Chievo Pk -140

    Total 2: Over -135 Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, Sassuolo has obviously used the confidence of that result vs Juventus to carry into their next couple of matches. Three goals vs Parma, 3 goals vs Empoli and 6 points later Sassuolo is right in the middle of the pack, after we had been thinking it might be right back to Serie B after only 2 years in top flight.

    Now, they get another winnable match vs Chievo, who have 1 win all season and have lost 6 of their last 7 with one draw in the mix. How do we say it? Play the hot hand when able! Sassuolo is going in one direction and Chievo is going in another. As it looks so far, Chievo and Parma will not be around Serie A next year, and hopefully it lasts another match. I will gladly hit this Handicap +130 Pk Draw no Bet on Sassuolo, just in case the Draw comes and we don't lose any money.

    Fiorentina vs Sampdoria

    3-Way: 1: Fiorentina +150 Away X: +220 Draw 2: Sampdoria +185 Home

    Spread: Fiorentina Pk -115 Sampdoria Pk -110

    Total 2.5: Over +125 Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Fiorentina looked in form vs Udinese at home during the mid-week fixture, while Sampdoria looked clueless on offense in a 1 - 0 loss to Inter Milan. Sampdoria has had issues scoring all season, so if you have to make a play here, the Viola with the Pk at -115 to at worst get a result away from home is certainly valuable enough to me (Fiorentina Pk - Draw no Bet)

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    Atalanta vs Torino

    3-Way: 1: Atalanta +340 Away X: +240 Draw 2: Torino -115 Home

    Spread: Atalanta +0.5 +100 Torino -0.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over +130 Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Is -120 all they feel like charging us for this Under? I have not expressed enough how pitiful Torino is up front with Quagliarella and Amauri. Atalanta on the road has scored 2 goals, and that was the first match they played of the 4 away matches. Three straight matches away from home without a goal and Torino can't score either. Under 2.5 is the easiest recommendation on this board today, even if it does cost us a little juice to have it.

    Genoa vs Udinese

    3-Way: 1: Genoa +295 Away X: +225 Draw 2: Udinese +105 Home

    Spread: Genoa +0.5 -120 Udinese -0.5 +105

    Total 2.5: Over +125 Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    When you beat Juventus the way they didon Wednesday, and celebrate like that in front of your own fans, it is such a momentum builder. We have discussed plenty the goalkeeping prowess that Genoa has, and unless he breaks his ankle walking off the bus, I am playing Genoa. So check the injury report to see if Mattia Perin broke his ankle coming off the bus and, if he didn't, play the Genoa +0.5 at -120 or even consider the Pk at a nice + Money price as well. I see it listed at +180 at many European sites, so if Diamond throws it out there, feel free!

    Palermo vs AC Milan

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +600 Away X: +300 Draw 2: Milan -200 Home

    Spread: Palermo +1 +100 Milan -1 -110

    Total 2.5: Over -120 Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Cagliari and Milan came out of the gate strong and had a 1 - 1 match early enough, and then simply stopped being aggressive and it ended 1 - 1 somehow.

    Palermo has had issues stopping anyone since getting back to top flight Serie A, and this should not make it much easier.

    I will grab this total expecting it to go Over the 2.5. Hopefully it won't be 1 - 1 at the half again and let us down like it did mid-week.

    Monday, November 3- 2 Matches

    Hellas Verona vs Cesena

    3-Way: 1: Verona +150 Away ; X: +220 Draw Cesena +190 Home

    Spread: Verona Pk -120 Cesena Pk +110

    Total 2.5: Over +120 Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Verona got away with another Luca Toni dive in the box to get the Penalty call and draw with Lazio 1 - 1on Thursday.

    Cesena has not enjoyed being back in Serie A at all, sitting near the bottom of the table due to not being able to score, while giving up too much as well. Not a good combination of 6 GF and 15 GA. At least at home they play in front of their fans with a little more motivation, resulting in only one loss in 4 matches. This is one of those gut feelings, hunches and suspicions that we will see a 2 - 2 match. Verona has also given up 15 goals over the same time span as Cesena, so who will stop who?

    Cagliari vs Lazio

    3-Way: 1: Cagliari +500 Away X: +300 Draw 2: Lazio -185 Home

    Spread: Cagliari +1 -110 Lazio -1 -110

    Total 2.5: Over -130 Under +125

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Lazio now has to play without a defensemen after the Luca Toni dive to get a callon Thursday. Cavanda will be sitting this one out, so Lazio will be light on the back line.

    Usually we think of Lazio as the club who is tough to score on at Olimpico, as they have been rather stingy here over the last couple of years. They have been exposed a bit more this season, and Cagliari is certainly scoring this season as well. The -130 price is a bit steep for my liking to be honest, so I would suggest moving it to 2.5 and 3 to get it closer to even money on your action.

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