Italian Serie A Week 37 Fixtures Featuring Roma vs Lazio

  • Thursday, May 21st, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Only six available points remain in the Serie A campaign, and the battle at the top of the table is all that is left to discuss. Juventus is obviously league winners, but the final Champions League group stage entry and the four other positions that hold European entry are all still up for grabs.

    Roma and Lazio sit in the 2nd and 3rd positions entering the weekend, and the difference between them is a single point. That point could prove to be large, since there is only one Champions League group stage entry left to earn. Third place in the table is a Champions League entry, but it is only a qualification round bid, while second place is a group stage spot.

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    The two clubs face off in our featured match of the round, which has been moved toMonday to accommodate the moving of the Coppa Italia match to this pastWednesday. The Coppa final was originally slated forJune 7, but with Juventus playing the Champions League final onJune 6, it was moved back.

    Before we get to the big matchon Mondayin Rome, the twoSaturdaymatches hold major implications in the table.

    Napoli and Juventus square off at Juventus Stadium, and even though Juventus has the Coppa Italia won and the Scudetto clinched, they still have not lost at home this campaign, this being their last home game of the year. Napoli finishes with Juve and Lazio, which will likely decide the top four positions in the table.

    Inter Milan visits Genoa in the secondSaturdaymatch, only separated by four points for Europa League positions.

    Cagliari, Cesena and Parma will not be in Serie A next year, and nothing can change that. Parma still hopes that they are not completely dissolved, because if they are, they will have to start over at the Serie D level as an entirely different club.

    Let's get to the pitch, and break down the weekend on deck in Serie A

    Saturday, May 23- 2 Matches

    Napoli vs Juventus

    3-Way: 1: Napoli +155 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Juventus +185 Home

    Spread: Napoli Pk -125 ; Juventus Pk +105

    Total 2.5: Over -125 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We know Juventus has already clinched their fourth straight Scudetto, and is also battling for the triple, with the Coppa Italia in hand after defeating Lazio in extra timeon Wednesday. Now, all that is left is a little thing called Champions League, which is obviously the biggest of the three tasks to complete.

    Since Juventus still has a few weeks until the Champions League final with Barcelona, Napoli poses their real last test of the campaign, since Hellas Verona will be all that remains in Serie A next weekend.

    Napoli likely has done enough to secure the Europa League group stage spot, but with Roma and Lazio facing offon Monday, they could still potentially pass one of them. If Napoli can take three points from Juve, they will be tied at 66 points with Lazio, and be behind Roma by a single point.Whomever loses that match in Rome, could slip all the way to fourth, and relinquish a Champions League bid.

    Napoli will host Lazio in the final weekend, and that could potentially decide the 2nd - 4th place positions.

    The biggest problem here is that Juventus has not lost at home this year, and we doubt they are going to let that go easily, and simply let Napoli take three points from them.

    We are suggesting this Over 2.5 at -125, because Napoli's defensive issues are a concern, even if Juve puts a second squad on the pitch, to offer them rest after the Coppa Italia win during the week.

    Inter Milan vs Genoa

    3-Way: 1: Inter +175 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Genoa +155 Home

    Spread: Inter Pk -105 ; Genoa Pk -115

    Total 3: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    The loss to Juventus this past weekend for Inter Milan might have been seen as the start of the nails in the coffin. With six points available, and four points to make up to earn a Europa League bid, a heads up match with Genoa could give them life again.

    All of a sudden Genoa is a Serie A offensive powerhouse, scoring nine goals in their last two outings against Torino and Atalanta. Genoa still has the potential to steal the 5th spot in the table from Fiorentina, which would give them a Europa League group stage berth, instead of qualification entry.

    The line setters are pointing in the direction of goal scoring, but we digress.This is not likely to be a high-scoring affair, just because the first meeting was 3 - 1, and Genoa is all of a sudden scoring goals.

    We are suggesting the Under 3 at -115, and if 2 - 1 is the score, no harm, no foul, and we will simply move on to bet another match with the push on the action.

    Sunday, May 24- 7 Matches

    Sampdoria vs Empoli

    3-Way: 1: Sampdoria +180 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Empoli +155 Home

    Spread: Sampdoria Pk +105 ; Empoli Pk -125

    Total 2.5: Over -130 ; Under +110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Sampdoria can only manage to beat clubs in the lower portion of the table, so maybe it is a good thing they have Empoli this weekend.

    Sampdoria is still alive in the hunt for Europa League, but their opportunities to find some consistency keep going by the wayside. They have already let their home record go astray, losing twice and drawing twice in their last four home games, and the road has not been exactly favorable either. With a 6 - 6 - 6 record away from home, and a -2 ratio with goals against them in their travels, they need all three road points on their last road game of the year.

    Empoli has already shown us that they are looking to next year, and the loss to Verona last weekend really told us all we need to know. Hopefully, they can find some younger, more able players for next year, as the aging veterans on the club are simply not working.

    Sampdoria and the Pk Draw no Bet at +105 is the only sound play to make here, simply because they are still playing for something, and Empoli has given up.

    Cagliari vs Cesena

    3-Way: 1: Cagliari +170 Away ; X: +250 Draw ; 2: Cesena +160 Home

    Spread: Cagliari Pk -110 ; Cesena Pk -110

    Total 3: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Both clubs are being demoted, and both clubs are going to score about three goals each in this one to prepare for their two meetings in Serie B next year. This Over 3 is the play, and we expect them both to score early and often. Why overanalyze a meeting with two of the worst clubs in the league?

    Atalanta vs Chievo Verona

    3-Way: 1: Atalanta +265 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Chievo +115 Home

    Spread: Atalanta +0.5 -135 ; Chievo -0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Atalanta has fallen apart defensively, but they are indeed scoring now, which is something they could not do for most of the campaign.

    Chievo has the worst offense in Serie A with only 27 goals scored through the 36 matches, but will survive to build for next year. There are some quality pieces in place, so hopefully in off-season they will try to bring in some names to contribute in the 2015-16 season.

    We are suggesting this Over 2.5 at even money, because there has been plenty of goals scored in the last month of matches for Atalanta, and that should continue right through next week as well, when they face AC Milan in the season finale.

    Fiorentina vs Palermo

    3-Way: 1: Fiorentina +110 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Palermo +240 Home

    Spread: Fiorentina -0.5 +110 ; Palermo +0.5 -130

    Total 3: Over -110 ; Under -110

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Fiorentina has certainly gotten lucky that the schedule has given them three of the weakest clubs to compete with down the stretch. Three wins against Cesena, Empoli and Parma will certainly not convince anyone that all is better now.

    We are suggesting the Palermo Pk Draw no Bet action at about +160, because the Pinks will likely get some type of result at home to finish out their season. They have played well at home all campaign, and they should at least give their fans one last showing.

    Hellas Verona vs Parma

    3-Way: 1: Verona +155 Away ; X: +250 Draw ; 2: Parma +175 Home

    Spread: Verona Pk -115 ; Parma Pk -105

    Total 3: Over -110 ; Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Again, nothing much to overanalyze here, since we know Parma has nothing left to offer.

    To see the Over 3 at -110 is a gift that needs to be unwrapped, and hopefully Parma comes out to say they want to thank their fans for hanging with them through this campaign and the massive turmoil that surrounded them. This should be a 2 - 2 match at the worst, and finding three goals should be the easiest offer we make this weekend.

    Sassuolo vs Udinese

    3-Way: 1: Sassuolo +275 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Udinese +100 Home

    Spread: Sassuolo +0.5 -120 ; Udinese -0.5 +100

    Total 3: Over +110 ; Under -130

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    If you would like to say defense and mention either of these two in the same sentence, then what season are you watching?

    Combining for 107 goals allowed, these two have been muddling in the bottom half the table the entire campaign, and it is something they both need to address for next year.

    This is another 2 - 1 type of match waiting to happen, and although the total is a straight 3, the +110 on the Over side of the action is worthy of play, since we could certainly see a fourth to cash the ticket outright.

    Torino vs AC Milan

    3-Way: 1: Torino +195 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Milan +150 Home

    Spread: Torino Pk +105 ; Milan Pk -125

    Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    This is arguably the toughest match of the weekend to analyze.

    We know neither club has a thing left to play for, other than maybe a job or two to be won, but this is yet another opportunity we see to chase some goal scoring. The AC Milan Over has hit in five straight outings, and we just saw Torino give up five goals to Genoa just a week ago. Just because Chievo couldn't score against them last weekend doesn't change the fact that Torino can be scored on.

    We suggest moving this total to the Over 2.5 and 3 handicap line, to get the price of +105 or so, instead of putting $35 of juice on the board with the 2.5.

    Sunday, May 25- 1 Match

    Featured Match Roma vs Lazio

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Roma +200

    Lazio +145

    Draw +230


    Roma Pk +115

    Lazio Pk -135

    Total 2.5:

    Over -110

    Under -110

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    It could get bigger than this, but if it did, it would not be in Italy.

    Second, third and even fourth place could be decided with this result, as Napoli is also going to have their eyes on this match.

    Roma, Lazio and Napoli are only separated by four points, and with two matches to go, and Lazio facing Napoli to finish the season, that makes this match a derby with major implications.

    When Lazio lost in the Coppa Italia to Juventuson Wednesday, it was strange to see Klose pulled out of the match, while it was still 1 - 1 at the time. Now that they played 120 minuteson Wednesday, the tired legs could be a factor for Lazio.

    Roma has gotten back to being the defensive club we expected them to be all campaign, and now they are in the drivers seat. They may be listed as the away side, but we all know they will feel more than comfortable at Olimpico.

    We are suggesting the Roma Pk Draw no Bet handicap line at +115.

    The Lazio / Napoli match next weekend will certainly be our featured match of the last round of the campaign, as both will likely need a win to secure the three spot in the table behind Juventus and Roma.

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