Italian Serie A Week 30 Fixtures Featuring Fiorentina vs Napoli

  • Friday, April 10th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr

    Fiorentina-vs-Napoli odds

    Soccer Betting: Italian Serie A is down to their final nine fixtures in the 2014-15 campaign, and Juventus has a clear path in hopes of clinching their fourth straight Scudetto. Juventus escaped a 2 - 1 aggregate deficit from their first leg in the in the Coppa Italia in their tie with Fiorentina, with a resounding 3 - 0 win at Stadio Artemi Franchion Thursday to earn their way to the finals. They now turn their attention to Parma who has, in fact, been playing some quality football lately.

    Parma had a draw against Inter Milan last weekend and defeated Udinese in their make-up game during the week, although making up the points it would take to avoid relegation is still highly unlikely.

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    Our featured match of the weekend comeson Sundayin Naples, with Fiorentina and Napoli only two points apart battling for European contention for next season. Napoli has had a rough time of late, having not won their last five league outings, although they are still alive in Europa League. They did, however, get knocked out of the Coppa Italiaon Wednesdaywith a 1 - 0 loss to Lazio at home.

    Another big match in this round comes at the San Siro, with surging AC Milan facing Sampdoria. Sampdoria is hoping to maintain their position in the table that holds Europa League entry, with Napoli only a point behind them. AC Milan only has a 7-point margin to make up in hopes of catching both clubs, and a big home win could certainly make a difference.

    Let's see what we have in store for the weekend, and get to the Italian pitch.

    Saturday, April 11- 3 Matches

    Juventus vs Parma

    3-Way: 1: Juventus -365 Away ; X: +450 Draw ; 2: Parma +1250 Home

    Spread: Juventus -1.5 -105 ; Parma +1.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    The best. The worst. So, Juventus sits 14 points clear of Roma, which no one imagines will change this weekend with the three-time defending champions taking on bottom feeder Parma.

    Juventus does have a long list of injuries to deal with, which we saw in their Coppa Italia match this week. Pogba, Pirlo, and Tevez were unable to get on the pitch, and they even let Storari start in net for Buffon.

    A wounded, depleted Juventus squad is still as good as any XI that Parma can put on the pitch, and the line setters clearly have a reason to put such a large price on the home underdogs in this one.

    If you recall, we did take advantage of Parma last weekend as they took on Inter Milan, and we suggested the +1.5 handicap that easily came in with the 1 - 1 draw. As we mentioned above, Parma defeated Udinese during the week in their make-up game.

    It is actually strange to see such a huge line on Juventus, yet the handicap of -1.5 is about even money, so what are they trying to tell us here? No one expects Juve to struggle with Parma do they?Parma may be motivated, of course, to take on Juventus at home, and naturally the fans will show up to see the champions in town.

    With Juventus wounded, and Parma playing football like an actual team in Serie A lately, let's do it again and see if the +1.5 is listed at -115 for a reason. It is amazing to think that you can get Parma 3-Way at +1250, but yet the +1.5 has juice on it. Tells us all we need to know! Parma +1.5 it is.

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    Cagliari vs Genoa

    3-Way: 1: Cagliari +290 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Genoa -105 Home

    Spread: Cagliari +0.5 -115 ; Genoa-0.5 -105

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Perin is still out of the Genoa lineup with a shoulder injury, but their backup keeper did a fine job keeping last week’s match to a 1 -1 scoreline and securing the draw, albeit it was a weak Udinese squad who, as we just saw, couldn't even score against Parma this week.

    Cagliari is desperate and needs to start finding results, and that is what we have been hearing all season. What makes this weekend any different from the last 2 months of garbage football Cagliari has played? Nothing is different, and Cagliari can play the desperation card as long as they want, because it doesn't matter. We will take Genoa here and throw in the 3-Way line of -105, simply because we are not buying what Cagliari is selling.

    Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona

    3-Way: 1: Inter +120 Away ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: Verona +240 Home

    Spread: Inter -0.5 +120 ; Verona +0.5 -140

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Inter Milan is favored here, and that makes absolutely no sense at all. On the radio show at GMS this week, the Hellas Verona Pk and +0.5 was given as a suggestion, and we will offer that same suggestion here.

    Inter Milan wasted all of our time in the transfer window, and they might have actually made their club worse than better. We saw last weekend with Parma how they are not well coached, do not play together, and certainly do not deserve action with our hard earned money. Turn to the handicap in this one, and grab that Verona Pk and +0.5 sitting right at about even money.

    Sunday, April 12- 7 Matches

    Featured Match Fiorentina vs Napoli

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Fiorentina +290

    Napoli +100

    Draw +250


    Fiorentina +0.5 -120

    Napoli -0.5 +100

    Total 2.5:

    Over -115

    Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We can assume Fiorentina comes in here a little deflated, after holding a 2 - 1 aggregate lead in the Coppa Italia over Juventus, only to give it all away with a poor effort and a 3 - 0 loss to get knocked out of the Cup.

    So, they need to get over it, and luckily they get to face Napoli this weekend who has been dismal at best lately. Plenty of turmoil within the Napoli club right now, and the results are showing the effects. Remember, this Napoli team was as hot as it got before this recent stretch of poor outings, so of course it has everyone asking, ‘What the hell happened?’

    We are hearing that after the Cup match, Napoli President Aurelio De Laurentiis lost his marbles in the locker room, stating that this type of play is unacceptable, and they need to train harder, play with more confidence, and bring a better quality to the pitch than this.

    We will see if it worked, although we won't worry about that since we are making a play on the total here.

    This Over 2.5 is going on our board, and the -115 price is reasonable enough to expect a 2 - 1 type of match to cash this ticket. If the speech by the Napoli president worked then they will be aggressive, and we know that Fiorentina has the ability to find the net, so the Over goes in as our recommendation for this one.

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    Chievo Verona vs Cesena

    3-Way: 1: Chievo +185 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Cesena +170 Home

    Spread: Chievo Pk -105 ; Cesena Pk -115

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Like we have said before, the only place Cesena knows how to play football is when they are home, and here they are again. Although we give them credit for the 3 - 3 result they managed last weekend after being down 3 - 0 and storming back against Verona to find a point.

    Chievo got back to their losing ways last weekend, but overall has done a great job getting themselves to 32 points and, likely, clear to stay in Serie A for next year.

    However, these two both need a result here, and to see Cesena score 3 goals in 11 minutes last weekend will lead us to think they can manage to find the net this weekend for their fans. Move this total to the 2 and 2.5 handicap, and get closer to even money, since the -135 on the straight two really does not hold much value.

    Sampdoria vs AC Milan

    3-Way: 1: Sampdoria +300 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Milan +100 Home

    Spread: Sampdoria +0.5 -120 ; Milan -0.5 +100

    Total 2.5: Over +105 ; Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Sampdoria holds that final position for Europa League at the moment, but Napoli is only a point back of them. We know Samp is a tremendous home side, but they are a mere 5 - 5 - 5 when they leave Genoa. With AC Milan looking like they are on the upswing, this should be an exciting match. We backed AC Milan last weekend, and held our breath the whole time and managed to cash the ticket of course, but this match has an Over feel to it.

    Call it the hunch of the week, but we see an up-and-down battle happening here, and neither club can afford to sit back and get into a defensive battle with so much on the line for both squads. Milan is certainly not out of the Europe picture now either, and making up 7 or 8 points can be made much easier with a heads up match with Sampdoria, who they are chasing in the table.

    Let's see if these two go out and find the net, and suggest the Over 2.5 at a lovely +105.

    AS Roma vs Torino

    3-Way: 1: Roma +155 Away ; X:+210 Draw ; 2: Torino +205 Home

    Spread: Roma Pk -130 ; Torino Pk +110

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Here we go again. Roma is still struggling to score, although they have gotten two straight wins with 1 - 0 results in back to back outings. We know Roma is tough to score on at home, but they have done just as well away from home this year keeping clubs out of the net. We can't wholeheartedly call an Over with Roma at this point, even if the offer is a straight 2 on the total, but -135 is also not exactly screaming value either, so the Under 2 at +105 will make our board this weekend, knowing Torino will probably not have much success finding the net either.

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    Empoli vs Lazio

    3-Way: 1: Empoli +600 Away ; X: +330 Draw ; 2: Lazio -200 Home

    Spread: Empoli +1 +100 ; Lazio -1 -120

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Lazio did a great job of getting past Napoli in the Coppa Italia this week as we mentioned, so they will be headed to the finals to face Juventus. There is no hotter club in all of Italy lately, and Lazio should be able to get by Empoli with relative ease. Of course nothing comes easy, but to see the Lazio -1 at -120 here, expecting at least that 1-goal margin to push the action, makes plenty of sense until we see someone interrupt the run they are on.

    Palermo vs Udinese

    3-Way: 1: Palermo +230 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Udinese +130 Home

    Spread: Palermo +0.5 -150 ; Udinese -0.5 +130

    Total 2.5: Over +120 ; Under -140

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Udinese is terrible and, at this point, it doesn't matter where or who they play. Palermo is just as bad away from home, with only one win in 14 away efforts, which we saw the last time they traveled to Chievo and couldn't come close to finding the net.

    We are moving this total to the Under 2 and 2.5 handicap, because we expect nothing to come from this match at all. We could easily see a 0 - 0 type of match here, and even if 1 - 1 comes, we can at least take a little something for the effort on that handicap line of 2 and 2.5.

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    Sassuolo vs Atalanta

    3-Way: 1: Sassuolo +255 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Atalanta +120 Home

    Spread: Sassuolo +0.5 -140 ; Atalanta -0.5 +120

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    More lethargic clubs who cannot score take the pitch here, and we certainly know why the line setters are squeezing the juice towards this Under. Who can forget the first meeting of the year between these two, when we saw ... nothing, which has come since these two have met for years.

    This is one of those against the grain plays for the weekend, because Atalanta is facing relegation if they don't pick up the pace. They are only four points clear of the final spot that will see someone sent to Serie B, and if the time is not now, than when is the time?

    Ready? Sit down please, because yes, we are suggesting this Over 2.5 at +115. If the desperation is here for both clubs, than hopefully the aggression will be enough to surprise us all, and give us a 2 - 2 type of match. Let's see how it turns out.

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