SERIE A NEWS SECTION

Italian Serie A Week 13 Fixtures Featuring Juventus vs AC Milan

  • Friday, November 20th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr

    2015-Italy-Nov-Feature-Juventus-vs-AC-Milan-Odds

    Soccer Betting: Italian Serie A is set to return to the pitch this weekend, as round 13 begins following the international break recognized throughout most of the World's top flight leagues. With eightSundaymatches and a duoon Saturdayto kick-off the round, our featured match at Juventus Stadium gets us started. Juventus plays host to AC Milan under the lights of Turin, as only two points separate the clubs who sit just outside the top-five in the Serie A table.

    Among the highlights of the featuredSaturdaymatch in Turin will be the celebration for Gigi Buffon, as the storied Italian keeper will be commemorating 20 years of Serie A campaigns. AS Roma will try to regain their first place status, if not for one day at least, with aSaturdayevening affair at Stadio Dall'Ara, where Bologna will be attempting to build on three wins in their last four matches.

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    Sundayis filled with 16 clubs in action, as Inter Milan and Fiorentina both have home matches to prepare for as they remain tied with 27 points atop the Serie A table, with Roma just a point behind.

    Let's fill out the schedule, and get you prepared for what we can expect from the Italian pitch for round 13.

    Saturday November 22- 2 Matches

    Featured Match Juventus vs AC Milan

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Juventus -170

    Milan +600

    Draw +275

    Spread:

    Juventus -1 +110

    Milan +1 -130

    Total 2.5:

    Over +120

    Under -140

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Gigi Buffon took the pitch for the first time on November 19, 1995, as some of us can recall when he wore the Parma kit and began his prolific goal-keeping career.

    If players are judged by championships and hardware, the future Hall of Famer scores high. A winner for six years with Parma and fourteen more with Juventus, the 2006 Italian World Cup winner has more decorations than the Macy's chain-department stores. If we were to itemize the club and personal accomplishments for Buffon, you would be reading for a good amount of time.

    So, the Juve fans will likely be in full-throat to show their appreciation for his presence on one of Italy's most successful organizations in the history of Italian football. Although, of course, we can delete two Scudetto titles that were erased from the history books, due to the scandal that also earned Juventus a demotion to Serie B in 2006.

    Obviously both clubs had higher expectations for this meeting, with a dozen fixtures into the campaign this marks the first time in a while they have met with either club not in the top-five of the table.

    Juventus has swept both meetings in the campaign the last two years, and after the well-documented rough start to the year, Juventus has suddenly only lost once in their last nine outings between three Champions League and six Serie A affairs.

    Simone Padoin has been ruled out for Juventus, and is likely to miss up to three weeks after suffering a thigh strain in the match against Empoli last time out.

    AC Milan is not that far behind that type of run, having earned results in five straight league matches, and are indeed two points ahead of Juve as we enter this weekend's set of fixtures.

    Nigel De Jong will be absent for Milan, joining, of course, Mario Balotelli, who will be out for an extensive period of time after his recent surgery announcement from the club this week.

    These two are all too familiar with each other, and despite the recognition of the career of Gigi Buffon, we are going to suggest an Over 2.5 at +120 in this match, expecting no less than a 2 - 1 win for the home side, with the possible 2 - 2 draw to help make it look better.

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    Bologna vs AS Roma

    3-Way: 1: Bologna +400 Home ; X: +275 Draw ; 2: Roma -135 Away

    Spread: Bologna +0.5 +115 ; Roma -0.5 -135

    Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    AS Roma can leapfrog Inter Milan and Fiorentina in the table for at least a day, if they can take three points from Bologna away from home on Saturday.

    Francesco Totti continues to be a spectator for the capital side, and it doesn't look like that will be changing this weekend. Gervinho is also going to be absent after getting hurt over the international break. The Ivory Coast national came off in the 72nd minute in their World Cup qualifying match with Liberia, in which Côte d’Ivoire did come away with the win.

    Gervinho was instrumental in the 2 - 0 Roma win in the Rome derby two weekends ago over Lazio, scoring the second goal just after the hour mark that left Lazio helpless.

    Roma has scored at least two goals in nine of their last ten outings between Serie A and Champions League, and Bologna will likely have some success contributing to the scoring this weekend as well.

    Mohamed Salah suffered a sprained ankle in the derby win over Lazio twoSundaysago, as we saw the Egyptian national carted off early in the second half following a harsh challenge by Senad Lulic. Salah is likely out for Roma, which could hurt with the tremendous spark he has given to the club in Totti's absence.

    Mattia Destro and Robert Acquafresca look to be sidelined for Bologna up front, but it hasn't slowed down the Rossoblu from scoring five goals in their last two wins they carry in to this weekend.

    That points us to the Over 2.5 at a reasonable -105, expecting three goals to cash our tickets, possibly before the hour mark.

    Sunday November 23- 8 Matches

    Hellas Verona vs Napoli

    3-Way: 1: Verona +725 Home ; X: +385 Draw ; 2: Napoli -250 Away

    Spread: Verona +1.5 -140 ; Napoli -1.5 +120

    Total 3: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    How do we sum up the Verona campaign thus far, other than yuck, poo!

    Not a win yet, and we are through 12 matches this year.

    It was bad before the injuries mounted up, but now it is getting to the point of hopelessness.

    No one wants to give up on anything this early, and sure, there is plenty of football left in the campaign to make up some ground, but for now, ugly is another adjective we will use to describe what is going on in Verona this year.

    Napoli are still just cruising along, with only the one loss against them this year, riding a 15-match unbeaten run between Europa League and the Serie A campaign.

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    Napoli has already ensured advancement in their Europa League campaign, holding a perfect 4 - 0 record with two matchdays remaining in group stage. The Italian side is in group D with Midjtylland, Club Brugge and Legia Warsaw, holding at 12 points and a six point lead on Denmark's Midtjylland.

    At -250, there is obviously no value to be had, so the decision will come in if we lay the -1.5 handicap at +120, or touch on the total.

    With a possible 3 - 1 type of win, we expect Napoli to take the three points in convincing fashion, so we will offer the -1.5 handicap line on Napoli at +120, seeing a semblance of value with the nice return..

    Atalanta vs Torino

    3-Way: 1: Atalanta +155 Home ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Torino +190 Away

    Spread: Atalanta Pk -120 ; Torino Pk +100

    Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Torino is winless in their last six outings, which stretches out to seven of the last eight contests while in search of three points,

    As you may recall from the last home match Atalanta played, we discussed Lazio struggling on the road, but also made use of the fact that Atalanta can almost always score at home.

    Atalanta did indeed get past Lazio the last time they were in Bergamo, even though they were unable to score a single goal in their last two matches against Bologna and AC Milan.

    With a both teams to score prop bet in mind, we offer this Over 2.5, simply out of respect that it is hard to ignore that Atalanta simply scores at home, no matter the situation or club in town.

    The Over 2 and 2.5 handicap is listed at -110, so if you feel the need for a mini-safety net, feel free to go in that direction, since we know those add up over the long course of the campaign. The Over 2.5 at +125 is certainly nice to see at that price, but $10 in juice is worth having that chance of 1 - 1 only take half our money with the handicap option on the board at 2 and 2.5.

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    Carpi vs Chievo Verona

    3-Way: 1: Carpi +185 Home ; X: +205 Draw ; 2: Chievo +175 Away

    Spread: Carpi Pk -105 ; Chievo Pk -115

    Total 2: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    So let's discuss the downfall of the other club from Verona, because Chievo has simply fallen off the wagon since their decent start to the campaign. Remember, we actually endorsed this club after the nice start, admitting we expected them to be able to maintain being in the upper portion of the table for much longer than it lasted.

    Now we are talking about a club that has fallen to 14th in the table with only 13 points through 12 fixtures. Chievo is winless in their last seven outings, and has only one win sinceAugust 30, spanning the last 10 matches in league play. In addition, the Verona side has only scored more than 1 goal a single time in that 10-game stretch.

    Carpi has been a mess since arriving to top flight, and are trying to shake off a five match stretch without a win, with only a point from a draw earned since the slide.

    It is extremely difficult to stare at a total of 2 and not like it at -115.

    That is not much to, at worst, escape with a 1 - 1 draw because neither club could find a way to take three points, but that is not the worst result, if indeed the scoring struggles continue for both clubs.

    The Over 2 at -115 makes the board, and again, if a push is the worst result we see, that is nothing we will lose sleep over with our money back for a rainy day.

    Fiorentina vs Empoli

    3-Way: 1: Fiorentina -205 Home ; X: +340 Draw ; 2: Empoli +600 Away

    Spread: Fiorentina -1 -115 ; Empoli +1 -105

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Fiorentina has a tricky Europa League match comingthis Thursday, as the Viola are trying to secure the top spot in their group I battle.

    Fiorentina will have to make the trek to Switzerland to take on Basel, who sit three points ahead of the Viola with only two matches remaining in group stage play.

    Empoli came out looking like a club who might give Juventus a match, after going up 1 - 0 with a Maccarone goal in the 19th minute, but Juve fought back with three unanswered goals, snapping Empoli's three-match run of results.

    At +1, that Empoli handicap seems worth testing, but in all honesty, if the line setters want to offer a -120 on this total to go over, than we will oblige them with a play on that offer.

    The Over 2.5 at -120 makes our board here, with Empoli looking to get back on track, against one of the upper tier clubs in Serie A right now.

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    Genoa vs Sassuolo

    3-Way: 1: Genoa +105 Home ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: Sassuolo +285 Away

    Spread: Genoa -0.5 +105 ; Sassuolo +0.5 -125

    Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Genoa has played to three straight draws, but neither of the three results reflect the match before.

    Genoa has played to 3 - 3, 0 - 0, and 2 - 2 scores against Torino, Napoli and Frosinone respectively, and as we see Genoa keeper Mattia Perin struggling to stay in form since returning from injury. He could certainly be to blame for the first goal allowed last time out against Frosinone, but the second goal was difficult for anyone to adjust to in all honesty.

    It was amazing that Genoa was able to even salvage a point against Frosinone, after being down 2 - 1 and seeing Di Maio sent off with a red card in the 36th minute. Genoa scored the tying goal just after the hour mark, and it was the only shot on goal they could manage in the second half playing the entirety of the 45 minutes 10 vs 11.

    Sassuolo has remained a pleasant surprise this campaign, hanging on to fifth in the table as we approach the one-third mark of the year.

    It would have been a good idea to play the Over in both meetings last campaign and, in fact, we looked back and did indeed offer the Over in the January meeting that came in nicely.

    We suggest the same offer here, with an Over 2.5 at +110, finding enough value there to hope for another 2 - 2 type of result here at Luigi Ferraris.

    Lazio vs Palermo

    3-Way: 1: Lazio -200 Home ; X: +325 Draw ; 2: Palermo +615 Away

    Spread: Lazio -1 -120 ; Palermo +1 +100

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Apparently the talk about Miroslav Klose leaving for the MLS is affecting Lazio's performance, because the capital club just cannot seem to put anything together recently.

    Lazio also has a big Europa League match coming upon Thursday, as they play host to Dnipro at Stadio Olimpico looking to secure the top spot in group G. As the competition approaches matchday five, Lazio has a three-point lead on Saint-Étienne.

    Palermo has lost three of their last four road outings, and has muddled in the middle of the Serie A table most of the still relatively new campaign,

    In the last five meetings, these two have not met an Over they haven't hit, so let's see if we can make it six, and ride that trend with the Over 2.5 at -115.

    Udinese vs Sampdoria

    3-Way: 1: Udinese +115 Home ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: Sampdoria +255 Away

    Spread: Udinese -0.5 +115 ; Sampdoria +0.5 -135

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Sampdoria away from home is a nightmare, still winless, and still with only four goals scored in their five matches played away from Genoa.

    Udinese at home is their own nightmare, so are you sensing a theme here?

    Maybe Freddy Krueger can settle the nightmare issues, but until he shows up, we expect this match to end 0 - 0, with nothing settled, and no one to talk about other than the two goal-keepers.

    The one problem we face is the -135 action on this Under, so a possible line move to the Under 2 and 2.5 at closer to even money.

    Inter Milan vs Frosinone

    3-Way: 1: Inter -480 Home ; X: +585 Draw ; 2: Frosinone +1350 Away

    Spread: Inter -2 +110 ; Frosinone +2 -130

    Total 3: Over -115 ; Under -105

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Inter Milan defender Davide Santon has been diagnosed with a small haematoma in his right Achilles, so he will likely be rested this weekend.

    Inter has held all three of their recent opponents to a clean sheet in league play, taking three successive 1 - 0 results in to this weekend.

    Frosinone presents a strange matchup for Inter Milan, obviously not having much familiarity with the newly promoted club from the Lazio region of the country.

    Not too often do we get to suggest a Inter Milan total to go over the number, but in this case, we cannot expect Frosinone to compete with Inter Milan, who need a big breakout performance to build some added confidence while sitting tied atop the Serie A table.

    The Over 3 is the offer at -115, because even if Inter does cover the -2 handicap, it will likely be by a 3 - 1 score with a push in place, and hopefully not with a 2 - 0 result that could hurt us.

    Expect Inter to break out a bit this weekend, and fix some of their own scoring issues.

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